Which counts will Luigi Mangione be convicted on?
➕
Plus
8
Ṁ493
2027
52%
(1) MURDER IN THE FIRST DEGREE
23%
(2) MURDER IN THE SECOND DEGREE AS A CRIME OF TERRORISM
27%
(3) MURDER IN THE SECOND DEGREE
64%
(4) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE SECOND DEGREE (possession of loaded firearm with intent to use against another person)
63%
(5) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE SECOND DEGREE (possession of loaded firearm outside of home/place of business)
48%
(6) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (assault weapon)
50%
(7) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (firearm silencer)
50%
(8) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (Glock magazine)
50%
(9) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (Magpul magazine)
45%
(10) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE FOURTH DEGREE
55%
(11) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A FORGED INSTRUMENT IN THE SECOND DEGREE

Each answer will resolve independently based on the verdict in Mangione's criminal trial:

  • YES if Mangione is found guilty of that specific count, or pleas guilty to that count

  • NO if Mangione is found not guilty of that specific count, or if the count is dismissed/dropped before or during trial, or if Mangione dies before a verdict is delivered for that count.

You can read the indictment for these charges here:

https://manhattanda.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Mangione-Indictment-FINAL-as-filed.pdf

If Mangione is charged with additional New York crimes related to the assassination before the full resolution of this market, I will add them.

The resolution date will be extended until all answers are resolved.

  • Update 2024-19-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If multiple degrees of the same crime are charged for a single act, you cannot be convicted of lesser included offenses (LIO) in NY

    • 2nd degree murder is considered a lesser included offense of 1st degree murder

    • 2nd degree murder is likely (but not definitively) a lesser included offense of 2nd degree murder as a crime of terrorism

    • 2nd degree murder as a crime of terrorism is likely (but not definitively) a lesser included offense of 1st degree murder

#Law & Order
#Crime
#UnitedHealthcare CEO Assassination
#Luigi Magione
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So I assume if there's a hung jury this market would stay open if prosecutors choose to charge again?

I think in the end he'll probably be convicted of whatever they charge him with but idk what charges are likely to get dismissed/dropped

reposted

I'd love to see more calibration/traders on this market.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Can you be found guilty for multiple degrees of the same crime from a single act?

@TheAllMemeingEye In NY you cannot be convicted of "lesser included offenses" for the same act.

There is precedent that 2nd degree murder is a LIO for 1st degree murder.

My reading of 2nd degree murder as a crime of terrorism is that it should be a LIO of 1st degree murder, and 2nd degree murder should be a LIO of 2nd degree as a crime of terrorism. I'm not a lawyer, though, and I don't think there is any precedent about that charge.

@Anthem thanks, what about criminal possession of both a whole weapon and its components?

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