Which counts will Luigi Mangione be convicted on?

1.1kṀ8422

2027

89%

(1) MURDER IN THE FIRST DEGREE

(2) MURDER IN THE SECOND DEGREE AS A CRIME OF TERRORISM

(3) MURDER IN THE SECOND DEGREE

73%

(4) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE SECOND DEGREE (possession of loaded firearm with intent to use against another person)

76%

(5) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE SECOND DEGREE (possession of loaded firearm outside of home/place of business)

48%

(6) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (assault weapon)

58%

(7) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (firearm silencer)

50%

(8) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (Glock magazine)

50%

(9) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (Magpul magazine)

45%

(10) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE FOURTH DEGREE

63%

(11) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A FORGED INSTRUMENT IN THE SECOND DEGREE

Each answer will resolve independently based on the verdict in Mangione's criminal trial:

YES if Mangione is found guilty of that specific count, or pleas guilty to that count
NO if Mangione is found not guilty of that specific count, or if the count is dismissed/dropped before or during trial, or if Mangione dies before a verdict is delivered for that count.

You can read the indictment for these charges here:

https://manhattanda.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Mangione-Indictment-FINAL-as-filed.pdf

If Mangione is charged with additional New York crimes related to the assassination before the full resolution of this market, I will add them.

The resolution date will be extended until all answers are resolved.

Update 2024-19-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If multiple degrees of the same crime are charged for a single act, you cannot be convicted of lesser included offenses (LIO) in NY
- 2nd degree murder is considered a lesser included offense of 1st degree murder
- 2nd degree murder is likely (but not definitively) a lesser included offense of 2nd degree murder as a crime of terrorism
- 2nd degree murder as a crime of terrorism is likely (but not definitively) a lesser included offense of 1st degree murder

Update 2024-23-12 (PST): - A hung jury resulting in a mistrial will not resolve this market - it will remain open pending potential retrial (AI summary of creator comment)

Law & Order

Crime

UnitedHealthcare CEO Assassination

Luigi Magione

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https://www.reuters.com/world/us/suspect-unitedhealth-ceos-killing-faces-terrorism-charges-new-york-2024-12-23/

So I assume if there's a hung jury this market would stay open if prosecutors choose to charge again?

I think in the end he'll probably be convicted of whatever they charge him with but idk what charges are likely to get dismissed/dropped

@Riley12 I agree, jury nullification is a very real possibility to consider.

(Subsequently, this information should be considered if the murder charge percentages should or should not add to 100%.)

@Riley12 Yes. If there is a hung jury and the judge declares a mistrial, then that won't resolve this market.

@Quroe 0% chance. X isnt real life

@Quroe There is ZERO chance of jury nullification. Touch grass. Seriously.

@FoxKHTML

Well, if you're serious.

@FoxKHTML In all seriousness, is everything alright, mate? From the other comments left here, it seems like you have a personal stake in this market/event beyond just internet-play-points. I have a feeling you're not personally mad at me, and I hope we're cool.

@Quroe I have a personal problem with terrorists and people who support terrorists

@FoxKHTML Ah, cool beans. I hope my bets or anybody else's bets of NO on these market options have not offended you.

I have come to the point where I make trades based on what I think will happen, not necessarily what I want to happen.

Until we meet again!

reposted

I'd love to see more calibration/traders on this market.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Can you be found guilty for multiple degrees of the same crime from a single act?

@TheAllMemeingEye In NY you cannot be convicted of "lesser included offenses" for the same act.

There is precedent that 2nd degree murder is a LIO for 1st degree murder.

My reading of 2nd degree murder as a crime of terrorism is that it should be a LIO of 1st degree murder, and 2nd degree murder should be a LIO of 2nd degree as a crime of terrorism. I'm not a lawyer, though, and I don't think there is any precedent about that charge.