Which counts will Luigi Mangione be convicted on?

1.1kṀ8422

2027

89%

(1) MURDER IN THE FIRST DEGREE

(2) MURDER IN THE SECOND DEGREE AS A CRIME OF TERRORISM

(3) MURDER IN THE SECOND DEGREE

73%

(4) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE SECOND DEGREE (possession of loaded firearm with intent to use against another person)

76%

(5) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE SECOND DEGREE (possession of loaded firearm outside of home/place of business)

48%

(6) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (assault weapon)

58%

(7) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (firearm silencer)

50%

(8) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (Glock magazine)

50%

(9) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (Magpul magazine)

45%

(10) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE FOURTH DEGREE

63%

(11) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A FORGED INSTRUMENT IN THE SECOND DEGREE

Each answer will resolve independently based on the verdict in Mangione's criminal trial:

YES if Mangione is found guilty of that specific count, or pleas guilty to that count
NO if Mangione is found not guilty of that specific count, or if the count is dismissed/dropped before or during trial, or if Mangione dies before a verdict is delivered for that count.

You can read the indictment for these charges here:

If Mangione is charged with additional New York crimes related to the assassination before the full resolution of this market, I will add them.

The resolution date will be extended until all answers are resolved.

Update 2024-19-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If multiple degrees of the same crime are charged for a single act, you cannot be convicted of lesser included offenses (LIO) in NY
- 2nd degree murder is considered a lesser included offense of 1st degree murder
- 2nd degree murder is likely (but not definitively) a lesser included offense of 2nd degree murder as a crime of terrorism
- 2nd degree murder as a crime of terrorism is likely (but not definitively) a lesser included offense of 1st degree murder

Update 2024-23-12 (PST): - A hung jury resulting in a mistrial will not resolve this market - it will remain open pending potential retrial (AI summary of creator comment)

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