What will happen during Claude Opus 4.7 Plays Pokemon?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1.5kṀ9k

Oct 10

93%

Defeats the champion

93%

Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch)

87%

Defeats the champion before 75,000 steps

82%

Ivy reaches level 85

80%

Defeats the champion before 50,000 steps

51%

Defeats the champion before 40,000 steps

50%

Stream is still down May 18th

42%

Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released

42%

Stream is still down June 1st

29%

Finishes VR while the video stream is down

22%

Stores an item in the PC

20%

Run ends to reset with a model not branded as Haiku, Sonnet, or Opus

13%

Changes the party further (from IVY/LUNA/ZIP/WEEDY/TIDE/FROST)

11%

Catches Zapdos

Any kind of intentional rollback due to the video issues

Gets trapped in a Cycling Road pocket without fly

Catches a Pokemon in the Safari Zone

Gets the Bicycle

Gets HM02 (Fly)

BUZZ reaches level 30

https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game.

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

I will not bet in this market.

Markets for previous runs:

https://manifold.markets/JoshSnider/what-will-happen-during-the-fifth-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-third-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-second

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-claude-play-0ZnSuI95EO

https://manifold.markets/Anthem/what-will-happen-during-claude-opus

https://manifold.markets/Anthem/what-will-happen-during-the-next-cl

ClaudePlaysPokemon - Twitch

Claude Opus 4.5 Plays Pokemon! !opus45 !harness

Market context

Technical AI Timelines

Claude

Pokemon

Claude Plays Pokemon

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Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2026?

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When with ClaudePlaysPokemon beat Pokemon Red/Blue?

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

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bought Ṁ40 YES

According to reddit, he had solved the last puzzle just before the stream went down!

@AhronMaline There is a fourth boulder puzzle and I don't think it was solved?

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Anthem ah, my bad. I was also wrong about the third one being needed for Moltres, leading me to think he had done that one before, so that the news must be about the last one. Actually Moltres was before solving third puzzle.

@Anthem the stream is down now - the whole thing, not just frozen video. Does that count?

@AhronMaline

I somehow didn't consider that this would happen.

Wording-wise it's ambiguous if this counts as a freeze, but spiritually this is just a worsening of the freeze issue, so I'm going to resolve yes.

bought Ṁ20 YES

Accorning to comments on the stream, he's already fought and killed Moltres (which implied he solved the 3F puzzle, correct?)

bought Ṁ231 YES

All the VR first-boulder-puzzle questions resolve YES

Claude entered VR on step 27000, and put the boulder on the switch at step 27254, and the stream was down.

@Anthem This resolves yes on step 26,741.

And the video is still down

bought Ṁ60 YES

Got Secret Key at step 25,845. Video stream is down again.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Anthem passed 25k

@Anthem this counts from the first time he stepped in, correct?

@AhronMaline Yes.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Anthem 20k passed. Stuck in Silph Co

bought Ṁ20 YES

He actually looked for the PC to deposit items! But he coyldn't find it and gave up. However, in order to progress he will need to catch a pokemon that can learn Surf and then find the PC to take it out. So he likely will deposit items then too.