What will happen during Claude Opus 4.5 Plays Pokemon?
63
2kṀ33k
Jan 30
99%
Reaches a step count of 150,000
86%
Walks through the northeastern B1F gate again (after step 132,000)
77%
Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released
75%
Reaches a step count of 200,000
68%
Finishes Pokemon Mansion
67%
Defeats Blaine
66%
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni
61%
Gets Gold Teeth from the Safari Zone
54%
Uses an item other than a ball in battle
46%
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni within 1000 steps of defeating Blaine
33%
Claude gets a sixth pokemon in his party.
33%
Defeats the champion
33%
Stores an item in the PC
31%
Reaches a step count of 300,000
27%
Any pokemon other than BLAZE gains a level (after step 83,847)
20%
Claude throws a Pokeball in Safari Zone
18%
Catches Articuno/Moltres/Zapdos
10%
Catches a pokemon in the Safari Zone
10%
Reaches a step count of 400,000
6%
Enters Seafoam Islands

https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game.

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

I will not bet in this market.

Markets for previous runs:

https://manifold.markets/JoshSnider/what-will-happen-during-the-fifth-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-third-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-second

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-claude-play-0ZnSuI95EO

Market context
AI
Technical AI Timelines
Claude
Pokemon
Claude Plays Pokemon
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@Anthem Can resolve NO

bought Ṁ125 NO

@Anthem resolves NO

bought Ṁ139 NO

@Anthem "Finished Pokemon Mansion before 110,000 steps" can resolve NO

@Anthem resolves NO

bought Ṁ0 NO

@Anthem Resolves no.

@JoshSnider Also he's not in Saffron 😂

100k! 🎉

@Anthem Nothing would be funnier than this happening.

bought Ṁ4 YES

He got Surf! Totally uninterested in the teeth, although he did acknowledge he would need them for Strength.

@lookoutbelow resolves NO, you can only throw Safari Balls /s

bought Ṁ8 NO

@moobunny @lookoutbelow Wait, so does this actually mean Safari Ball or not? If so it should be edited

@Anthem

Resolves yse

bought Ṁ58 NO

@moobunny resolves NO

@moobunny should have realized Anthem was on top of it lol <3

Market for how well Claude does on Safari Zone! https://manifold.markets/moobunny/how-much-money-will-claudeplayspoke

@JoshSnider Never been happier to lose a bet <3

@JoshSnider resolves yes

@JoshSnider resolves yes

bought Ṁ100 NO

Card key obtained

bought Ṁ10 YES

@JoshSnider

Anyone have a timestamp for his latest visits to the actual card key? I see there's one since step 66k that I'm not aware of.

Which item did he pick up, and when?

@AhronMaline He picked up a Rare Candy at step 71,579.

How do liquidity subsidies work with a market like this? Is liquidity being constantly removed as answers are added and resolved or is it just constantly becoming more liquid?

@Anthem Same with this.

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