What will happen during Claude Opus 4.5 Plays Pokemon? | Manifold

What will happen during Claude Opus 4.5 Plays Pokemon?

39

900Ṁ16k

Dec 30

82%

Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released

73%

Defeats Sabrina

73%

Defeats Silph Co Giovanni

70%

Defeats Koga

65%

Gets a fifth badge before 50,000 steps

40%

Stores an item in the PC

38%

Gets HM03 (Surf) from the Safari Zone

29%

Defeats Blaine

29%

Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni

27%

Catches Articuno/Moltres/Zapdos

20%

Defeats the champion

13%

Gets a bicycle

3%

Gets Eevee

3%

Gets HM05 (Flash)

Resolved

YES

Finishes Virdian Forest before step 1073

Resolved

YES

Beats Brock before step 2381

Resolved

YES

Finishes Mt. Moon before step 8247

Resolved

YES

Beats Misty before step 9076

Resolved

YES

Defeats Surge before step 15266

https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game.

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

I will not bet in this market.

Markets for previous runs:

https://manifold.markets/JoshSnider/what-will-happen-during-the-fifth-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-third-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-second

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-claude-play-0ZnSuI95EO

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sold Ṁ1 NO

Resolves YES.

Still in Saffron at 35k can resolve YES

Silph Co completion time market: https://manifold.markets/moobunny/when-will-claudeplayspokemon-defeat?r=bW9vYnVubnk

"Still in Celadon at 30,000" can resolve NO

lmao

@moobunny oh no he went back to celadon after getting the flute 😭

bought Ṁ10 YES

@moobunny I don’t think it makes sense to resolve this NO if the game is reset before 30k. I think it should resolve N/A.

@moobunny This should resolve yes.

reposted

Good market!

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Will Claude Become a Pokemon Master before 2027?

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+3% 1d81% chance

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Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5?

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-4% 1d6% chance

Related questions

Will Claude Become a Pokemon Master before 2027?

Will Claude beat Pokemon before my 4-year old?

What will be true of Pokémon Champions?

When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 5th badge (Soul Badge) from Koga?

When will ClaudePlaysPokemon defeat Giovanni in Silph Co?

When with ClaudePlaysPokemon beat Pokemon Red/Blue?

When will ClaudePlaysPokemon obtain the 6th badge (Marsh Badge) from Sabrina?

Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5?

What milestones will the (on-screen) Step Count reach in ClaudePlaysPokemon?

Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2025?

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