Will a manned mission to Mars be officially announced by a government space agency by 2030?
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The project has to be government funded or government owned. The mission needs to have its official name and proposed date of launch with proposed space craft to launch.

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Will something like this qualify? The Zambian president announced a space program in 1964

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/the-zambian-afronaut-who-wanted-to-join-the-space-race

Let's imagine a country like North Korea announces a Mars mission.

@GazDownright Statement of the government about the vision does not count. It only counts when there is a planned proposal, deciding at least name of the Project, proposed date and launching mechanism/spacecraft

Announced in how much detail? Artemis is publicly announced as preparing for manned missions to Mars, but they haven't given specific details yet.

@Mqrius The last announced mission is Artemis III. They haven't announced official plans for manned mission to Mars.

@AnjanPoudel5d85 So I agree that they haven't announced any missions to Mars yet.

But for Artemis there's a lot more missions announced than just Artemis 3. That's why I'm wondering, to what detail does the mission needs to be announced? We've got missions announced up to Artemis 8 for the moon, mostly including launch dates. What makes you say they don't count as "announced missions"?

I'm asking because I think this market is gonna be very hard to resolve if we don't get this clear ahead of time!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Artemis_missions

@Mqrius Updated the description. The mission needs to have its official name and proposed date of launch.

@AnjanPoudel5d85 Fair enough. Does the date need to be specific? So in the above list, only Artemis 1 would count? Or is a vague date like Artemis 7 okay, like "September 2031"?

So spaceX doesn't count?

@TheWabiSabi has to be government funded or owned

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