In this NASA article https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/humans-to-mars/, and this interview by Elon Musk talking about SpaceX plans https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 express their dedication to advancing technologies for human missions to Mars. NASA underscores its commitment to developing new technologies on its official website, while Elon Musk hints at a manned mission to Mars in 2029 during an interview. These statements indicate a shared interest in sending manned missions to the Red Planet. Will any of them be successful by the end of 2040 ?
the mission would be considered successful by the following criteria :
Safe Arrival: The spacecraft carrying the astronauts safely lands on the surface of Mars without any major incidents or malfunctions.
Human Survival: The crew members are able to survive and function effectively on the Martian surface for the planned duration of the mission, which could range from weeks to months.
Scientific Exploration: The mission accomplishes its scientific objectives, which may include conducting experiments, collecting samples, and gathering data to further our understanding of Mars and its potential for supporting life.
Technological Advancement: The mission demonstrates advancements in space travel technology, such as propulsion systems, life support systems, and habitat construction techniques, that can be applied to future missions.
Return Journey: The astronauts safely return to Earth, bringing back valuable data, samples, and insights gained from their mission on Mars.
1,000takeoff.watch forecast: 13%. To resolve YES, a crew must land on Mars and get back to Earth by the end of 2040, so the last usable launch window is 2037. Starship only reached orbit in September 2026, has not yet refuelled in orbit, and SpaceX has made the Moon its priority. Calibrated forecasts point to roughly 13%.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot