I am generally fairly isolated from the impacts of government policy, the economy, etc. I live in a studio in the south SF Bay Area. I work in-office daily for a software infrastructure company about 5 miles away. A number of my friends/coworkers are here on visas. My yearly income is several times my cost of living and I have years of runway. I'm happy to provide additional details if they seem useful.

So the question is: When/will Trump's policies impact my life, either positively or negatively in a way that I can't ignore (tangible) or avoid (involuntary?)

Tangible meaning it has to impact my life physically in some way. If I gain or lose money in the stock market, that doesn't count as tangible unless I lose so much money that I can't afford my current lifestyle.

Involuntary meaning to exclude negative impacts which could be trivially avoided. For example, if a walking trail on federal land closes due to the shutdown, that won't count because I can just go somewhere else.

Here are some things that might count:

• A friend or coworker I interact with at least weekly is deported

• A coworker I regularly interact with loses their job or leaves the company due to Trump's policies somehow

• Goods that I regularly consume become unavailable

• Protestors interfere with my life in some way (e.g. blocking my commute)

• My job changes significantly or I lose it

• A government shutdown causes some service I rely on to halt

• Trump's policies result in the creation of some new infrastructure, service, institution or business I make use of

It's difficult to make this completely rigorous but hopefully you get the gist of it.

It's also possible that this has already happened and without me thinking of it explicitly. If someone suggests or points out a way this might happen and I realize it already did, I will resolve the market to "2025."

If I don't judge that this has occurred, the market resolves when Trump's term ends.

Edit with additional information: I have a college degree and don't plan to get another. I don't expect to buy a house or have children within this period. I may try to find a relationship partner or move out of the Bay Area during this period.

• Update 2025-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Price Impact Threshold

  • Even if prices are doubled, the impact does not count as tangible if affordability is maintained.

  • Choosing not to purchase due to higher prices is considered a voluntary decision.

Tariff-Related Impact

• For tariffs to trigger market resolution, they must make a product that is certainly desired and has no substitute become literally unavailable.