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Wow, I had a lot of mana in this market.

@AmmonLam Please resolve NO

just why

@Chimpy Consider this stratagem:

For the sake of argument, let's imagine a world where Trump says that he would end the war if and only if he was given the Nobel Peace prize. This would be Trump attempting to twist the arm of the Nobel Committee to put the blame of the war on them, at least as a propaganda tactic.

Do you think there would be a spike in the price of YES from people's knee jerk reactions to that news?

Maybe people should buy YES at cheap prices now with the expectation of selling if and when people have that knee jerk reaction.

@Quroe alright but that's just blasphemous and a new market about whether he would get impeached or not would be created.

@Chimpy Blasphemous, eh?

/GnosticGirl/will-trump-post-another-religious-i

Help me understand where you're coming from. What did you mean by that point?

@Quroe haha

@Chimpy I swear I'm not going to dunk on you if you have an honest answer to that question. There's a fun conversation to be had here.

I promise.

lol

Order up. 24 hours.

@strutheo Would you like to sell any more of that NO position of yours?

Guys, I think he's stopped trying for the Nobel Peace prize.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-israel

@TimothyJohnson5c16 15 or 20 wrongs do not, in fact, make a right. It is known.

/market will Trump publicly say he wants or deserves a Nobel Peace Prize before the next one is awarded?

@creator title is not grammatically correct, technically means that trump is in active state of winning nobel prize. please fix/clarify this

Hey Manifold traders. Do we still think this is calibrated?

@Quroe It should be <1% at this point but I've already bought 30k NO.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'm contemplating if I should treat this market as a treasury bond with the baked in 5% APY interest on positions upon resolution on top of the standard winnings for trading at market probability.

@Quroe My understanding is this is not a "3 wrongs make a right" type of situation and increasing the number of world leaders you have taken down does not increase your odds of winning the prize.

Happy to hear other arguments, that is just my understanding based on past information.

@Quroe the Nobel Committee has a curious notion of peace. If anything, recent developments may help his case

@a_l_e_x Interesting take. Convince me.

@a_l_e_x So maybe 6 or 7 wrongs can make a right after all!

@Quroe

• the committee members are more hawk than hippie

• in the last 5 years they've consistently used the prize to malign the governments of Venezuela, Iran, Russia and Belarus

• there's a precedent for giving the prize to figures who have pursued war/violence before achieving peace

@a_l_e_x /market will Donald Trump take down the leaders of Russia and Belarus?

< 1%. Need to stop bombing people in violation of international law, trying to end NATO and the UN, and several other things.

@YourFriend There is so much free mana on the table for you here if you really think 1% is the true setpoint.