Alright so....

convince me NOT to make this bet? 6% seems low to me.

1. Roughly 20% of Nobel Peace Prizes go to heads of state or similar figures.

2. Among heads of state in 2026, Donald Trump appears to be the most prominent figure so far in the realm of international relations.

3. There is a lot of the year to go and Mr. Trump has claimed in the past that he wants to win this award. He may take additional actions around the world that he views as positive in his campaign to win this.

Is the counter-argument basically "They won't give it to a bad guy"?

@Eliza I wouldn't say "bad guy", but I would expect them to give it to somebody who has promoted the cause of peace rather than repeatedly acting to frustrate it.

@Eliza I strongly expect any one of the following is disqualifying in the eyes of socially democratic Norwegian technocrats: inciting an insurrection, killing hundreds of thousands of people by cutting USAID, torpedoing global free trade

At least there are maybe other candidates who have not done these things

Also: denying climate change, disregarding international law, trying to annex Greenland

@ItsMe and if they don't give it to him, what's he going to do? Say their names on TV?

@ItsMe Greenland is honestly the nail in the coffin; Norway is one of the NATO members who has committed tripwire forces to the defense of Greenland against the US.

Conceivably they could give it to him as a thank you if he formally drops his Greenland ambitions?

@Eliza place the bet, it will only climb to 10% and if the odds ever climb past that you can make profit already without fully comitting to a YES

@Eliza We're frothing at the mouth for you to make that trade.

@Eliza we've even sweetened the pot with limit orders from when you posted

@Quroe You were supposed to convince me not to do it, and you did a good job.

@moobunny that'd would be rewarding him for the threats, for fixing a problem he created

@Eliza I mean, do you give me express permission to lie to you? Are we playing Among Us now?

@MartinSundhaug But what if it meant the world avoided WWIII?

@Eliza I was also kind of tempted but I actually think this market is pretty reasonably priced at 5-6%. Not sure I’d buy yes or no shares at these odds. One thing to remember is that the Nobel selection committee is more conservative than you might think and also really anti-Russia. Trump taking a concerted effort to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict on terms unfavorable to Russia (perhaps through pledging security agreements for Ukraine or something) might be enough to get it done.

https://open.substack.com/pub/thebsdetector/p/the-nobel-committee-is-hungry-for?r=19iisj&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay

@bens The main reason I brought it up is because there is an incredible amount of liquidity available here at those prices and IMO the storylines for 2026 for this main character are going to be just as volatile as they have been in the past, maybe even more. Plus there is a lot of time to adjust your position after you acquire Yes shares.

Even in the 2025 edition where there was no plausible reason Trump should be awarded the prize, there was plenty of trading action in the 5ish percent range. By the end of 2026 he'll at least have "something" to point to.

Even 5000 mana on Yes would get you 73000 shares (6.8%). If the baseline moves closer to 10 you can profit pretty confidently.

@moobunny Should we then too award it to Putin, who threatened WW3 if we supported Ukraine?

@MartinSundhaug Would giving or withholding the prize actually sway Putin? Trump puts a lot of stock in the prize and in being seen as a peacemaker.

Meowdy! Trump for Nobel Peace Prize is a stretch but not impossible—I'll keep an eye on any surprises and check back later tonight for updates! :3

@MiaCat purely AI comments are not allowed

@MyndaHolms They're only disallowed if they're "generic and unhelpful," which I don't think MiaCat typically qualifies for (I don't know if that account is typically pure AI gen or not). This is definitely a much shorter and less quirky comment than they usually leave though, so maybe it's banned.