Hear me out:

1. he's occasionally doing seemingly crazy or stupid shit to hurt the GOP in midterms as a 69D game of chicken. He wins, they back down and cooperate

2. so while it was mostly the evangelicals who he pissed off, and it gave from points to his opposition to make fun of him on the cheap (normally the opposite of what any leader would want), this comports with number one.

3. "can resolve yes to any time within the next 2+ years" is in politics, a long time. It also by definition means "it has 2+ years to resolve as (not) no."

4. there is already precedent, and doubling down in a lot of the things he does to keep people paying attention.

5. the longer manifold exists the more mana inflation there will be.

6. Considering all of this, this looks like a prediction market that will only rise in probability with time, therefore yielding free daily gains.

@DavidAttenborough

I find that trying to understand Trump is not good for my sanity. Which might be part of the 69D plan..

@GnosticGirl Say, for the sake of argument, he posted a photo of him parting seas like Moses allegedly did. Would that count?

Would it depend on what he is depicted as wearing? Or would the action of parting seas settle the score in and of itself?

@Quroe a scene of Trump as Moshe parting the red sea (or other famous religious miracles -- recall the artwork clause) would indeed resolve YES.

Given the striking nature of a man parting the waters, it's hard to imagine a depiction that wouldn't qualify. 🤔

Maybe if it was, like, super grainy/abstract and you couldn't tell what was going on we'd say, "look, he's wearing the prophet's robes!" as part of a cumulative case. But in 99% of cases I think we'd all know "Trump sees himself as Moses here" entirely non-controversially.

Not to sound wishy-washy. Trump clearly performing biblical miracles is him deifying himself and resolves YES 🌸

@GnosticGirl These are some of the best market clarifications I've ever seen. Well done!

He did already this morning.

@DaniellqdC6 Do you mind linking the picture? You're sure it's not the one from yesterday at the bottom of my description?

@GnosticGirl yeah, I meant this one with Jesus in his back, putting his arm on Trumps shoulder. I thought it would be worth to let it count.😁

Can anybody create the right picture for him, so he will post it? At the moment it seems he needs to distract the folks with this method.

@DaniellqdC6 My faith tells me NO, don't do it, but my Mana bag says YES. Is this what Jesus meant when he said one cannot serve two masters? 😂

If it is one of y'all though, post the image here first. It'll make for a great news story if the image comes from Manifold / my little market 🪻💀

Greek gods like Ares or Zeus? Demigod like Heracles?

@SIMOROBO excellent question! 🌺

1. YES for depictions as their Gods or recognizable demigods

2. YES for emperor cults, provided he's being divinized in the image beyond secular measures

3. NO if it's just Trump in Greco-Roman society

Before 2029? Hell yeah, he just loves the attention

@TheWabiSabi the YES case is indeed probably within the next week 😂

However, cross-religious depicitions like him meditating as a Buddhist resolve YES.

Hang on, this bit seems like a much lower bar than the rest of the description (where he must be as a major religious figure) and the market title (where he must be deified i.e. become god)

@TheAllMemeingEye I see where you're coming from. For normal people there's a difference between depicting yourself in Buddhist meditation vs a painting of yourself as Jesus.

But in the mind of someone like Trump, these represent expressions of the same underlying psychological need for narcissistic supply. Vlad Vexler has some great YouTube videos explaining this element of Trump's psychology.

The reason the bar is higher for Christianity specifically is that he claims to be a Christian and lives in a predominantly Christian culture. Showing himself at church doesn't mean anything. He needs to be the Pope or Jesus himself to bask in the narcissist glow of his sacrilege.

By contrast for Buddhism or Islam, the bar is much lower. Him posting a picture of himself as a Sultan or monk in Buddhist meditation achieves the same effect. It communicates that he's glorified beyond religious taboos we have when depicting foreign faiths.

In any case, I made sure to cover all my bases in the description. If anyone wants to bet on this market, I suggest reading the nuances in full 🌷

Notably to tie up any lose ends there, Trump just hanging out with Buddhists wouldn't count.

He needs to actually be engaging in their spirituality. As in, Trump the Buddhist, not Trump with the Buddhists. See the statue I posted in an earlier message for an example.

@GnosticGirl Please update the market title to reflect this loose criteria. Something like "Will Trump post another image glorifying himself beyond religious taboos?"

@HankyUSA I'll think about it. Certainly if a moderator asks me to in their official capacity, I will.

However I do like the current tile. It succinctly captures what I'm going for, and how the market is almost certainly to resolve in the YES case.

I see it all as deifying, and have declared myself the final authority on what that means in the description.

Pragmatically, consider that any realistic depiction of Trump as a Buddhist will come off as him saying he's the Buddha. Just imagine him posting this:

I don't want to have debates on "hold on, is that really the Buddha?" Or "we don't know what Mohammed looks like" when he posts himself as a sultan.

And is there really a world where Trump, in all his "Praise be to Allah" grandeosity, posts a picture of him humbly praying towards Mecca as a Muslim? No, he's going to be the object of veneration in the picture. Hence, this is too much of an edge case to make title-worthy even if one doesn't agree with me here

@GnosticGirl based market creator

@GnosticGirl what happens if he posts a pic of himself partaking in the activities of another faith as an act of goodwill on a diplomatic visit e.g.

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/trump-s-first-foreign-trip/trump-becomes-first-sitting-u-s-president-visit-western-wall-n762891

@TheAllMemeingEye him... acting out of goodwill?

You know the spell, Mr. President 🔮🪄

All he has to do is post this one: