When will an exomoon be discovered? | Manifold

When will an exomoon be discovered?

Basic

4

Ṁ764

2051

3%

before the end of 2024

6%

before the end of 2025

12%

before the end of 2026

34%

before the end of 2027

34%

before the end of 2028

50%

before the end of 2029

66%

before the end of 2030

66%

before the end of 2035

72%

before the end of 2040

83%

before the end of 2045

92%

before the end of 2050

98.4%

before the end of year 100000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exomoon

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1,000

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Never

What does this option mean? Resolves NO when one is discovered, resolves YES never (or if we can somehow prove there are none)?

bought Ṁ5 before the end of 2040 YES

Ok, I like "before the end of year 100000" better because it also avoids flipping the yes/no

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