So far three interstellar objects have been observed inside the solar system, 1I/'Oumuamua in 2017, 2I/Borisov in 2019, and 3l/Atlas in 2025
Will a new object designated with an I number (presumably 4I) be observed during 2025 ?
If the object is observed in 2025 but only receives the I designation at a later date, this will resolve YES. The market will remain open for a few months in 2026 for this reason, especially if there are likely candidates.
Interstellar Meteors (designated by IM) do not count for this market.
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@EstMtz https://manifold.markets/bens/how-many-interstellar-objects-will?r=YmVucw
There’s likely to be more this year due to Vera Rubin observatory.
@EstMtz I'm not really active on manifold anymore, feel free to duplicate this market and adjust as you see fit and link it here if you like
@bens I assume you're talking about detection capability expansion? As far as I can tell Vera will not be online until September at the earliest and there are pretty wide error bars around expectations for it.
@andreiklepatch Yes. Vera Rubin is already online in a limited capacity. I think it's plausible that the first released dataset might contain interstellar objects (ppl are going through the data atm, likely), but also if it goes online in Sep, it should bear fruit within a matter of weeks. Please buy into my limit orders though!