When will an exomoon be discovered?
When will an exomoon be discovered?
7
785Ṁ9682051
1%
before the end of 2024
35%
before the end of 2025
37%
before the end of 2026
38%
before the end of 2027
41%
before the end of 2028
50%
before the end of 2029
59%
before the end of 2030
66%
before the end of 2035
76%
before the end of 2040
85%
before the end of 2045
92%
before the end of 2050
98.4%
before the end of year 100000
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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