When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold?

700Ṁ1409

2031

82%

2025

2026

2027

2028

0.9%

2029

0.8%

2030

0.7%

2024

Other

The resolve year will be the year I started noticing a majority of the comments in the market argue that AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion. I will try my best to be impartial, and I will use my judgement.

(edit: once I started noticing a majority of the comments in the market argue that AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion, I will conduct a poll on Manifold asking if AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion, and resolve Yes to the year if the poll has more vote on Yes than No)

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bought Ṁ20 YES

I think absolutely AI is as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold currently (and in the real world)

-There are about 100x as many markets on AI as on abortion

-There are more news articles about AI than about abortion, by a decent margin, both in the US and abroad

-AI already seems to be seeping into policymaking substantially (DOGE, tariffs formula, etc)

-Major lawsuits about AI are starting to outpace lawsuits about abortion

-Private NGO funding for AI stuff is probably on par to pass abortion NGO funding this year (!). similar with gov lobbying groups, etc

I think you should make a poll @AmmonLam

Often the people who write comments do so because they have no money to bet.

Comments are a terrible data source.

@AmmonLam do not consider manifold comments as your main source. use polls or some other things. Manifold is in a bubble

@nikki edit: once I started noticing a majority of the comments in the market argue that AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion, I will conduct a poll on Manifold asking if AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion, and resolve Yes to the year if the poll has more vote on Yes than No

@AmmonLam The question should state "on manifold" then

Would it make sense to add 2024 as an option outside of Other?

@12c498e @AmmonLam Otherwise, it's strange that Other can either be "earlier than the other options" or "later than the other options". I want to bet on 2024, which I would expect to have a low market probability, but Other is at 40%.

@12c498e Added 2024 for you

@AmmonLam Thanks!

Before I posted this, there were no comments, which would mean it wouldn't resolve? Isn't it more fair to consider Manifold comments as one of multiple datapoints? I'm concerned that people will argue dishonestly to tip the resolution of the market, even if their views contradict the wider public opinion.

@12c498e I mean, there's currently not a lot of comments here, but I expect the comments will get more heat here once AI is getting closer to be as big a political issue as abortion