Resolution base on the numbers reported here: https://manifold.markets/stats
Resolves N/A if Manifold stops reporting statistics to the public
I will state the pivot official starting date here as soon as the pivot is announced
On Apr 7, 2024,
the 7d average DAU is 1601
the monthly mana sales is 11285
1,000
3.00@mods peak reached 2240 per https://manifold.markets/stats
and have data to 15 Aug so last two can resolve no.
@mods A bit tricky one of these:
We are now 2 months past pivot on 17th May.
Most 2 month markets that are still open can resolve no.
The tricky one is 7 day average DAU reaching 1800. The stats page shows 7 day average DAU at 1830 for 17 July first time above 1800 in potentially relevant time.
I think the pivot happened during 17th May while the 1830 number for 17 July is presumably for end of July 17th so this is not within 2 months of the pivot, so it resolves no. This seems simplest and best to me.
Alternately it could be argued that it was 1787 for end of July 16th and increased to 1830 by end of July 17th so an increase of 43 over the day with potential ups and downs. Someone could argue assume the change is smooth and steady rather than having ups and downs at irregular intervals is a reasonably close approximation and best we are likely to be able to do. Then it may well be that the pivot happened more than 13/43rd of way through the 17th July so it reached 1800 within 2 months of the pivot.
A third possibility might be to find an exact time for the pivot and a special calculation of the 7 day average DAU to that time rather than the usual to end of day calculations. This obviously involves manifold team doing some work which may well not be worth the effort needed even if it might be possible to do. My recollection is various things happened over a period of time so you could end up arguing which event is the relevant one. So several reasons why this might not be a good choice.
Obviously the 3 month 1800 7 day average DAU can resolve yes
@mods I believe the 1 month markets can all resolve no.
$15000 mana sales has been reached so the 2 and 3 month markets for this can resolve yes.
https://manifold.markets/stats
@AmmonLam 1 month markets can be resolved please.
Got that wrong originally, but data to 17 June is now available
I will state the pivot official starting date here as soon as the pivot is announced
17th May 2024 ?
That's the date of the 10x mana devaluation. Makes sense.
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/994321335419420832/1240913783237382154