Will Manifold be more accurate a month after the pivot
Basic
11
Ṁ418Jun 2
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to https://manifold.markets/calibration if you click learn more you will see an exact brier score. If a month after the pivot the brier score is lower than the day of the pivot. Unless there is a paper on manifold's calibration comparing the month before and after the pivot and I am convinced it is accurate I will resolve according to that.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Any word on a resolution for this market? Presumably @JamesF has a value for what the brier score was on 1 May? Internet Archive is letting me down on this one...
Related questions
Related questions
[The Pivot] Will anyone clone a pre-Pivot Manifold and get it running in 2024?
14% chance
Will Manifold's calibration improve in 2024?
12% chance
Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?
41% chance
Will a reputable news site or TV channel mention the Manifold pivot, starting from now to 2 months after the pivot?
61% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
45% chance
Will Manifold significantly improve the reliability of extreme market probabilities before the end of 2024?
8% chance
What will Manifold's total mana purchases be in the month after the pivot is implemented and cash payouts enabled?
Will I still be active on Manifold a year after the Great Pivot?
87% chance
Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?
6 months after the Great Manifold Pivot, will Manifold leadership consider it to have been a good idea?
89% chance