Will Manifold be more accurate a month after the pivot
Jun 2

Resolves according to https://manifold.markets/calibration if you click learn more you will see an exact brier score. If a month after the pivot the brier score is lower than the day of the pivot. Unless there is a paper on manifold's calibration comparing the month before and after the pivot and I am convinced it is accurate I will resolve according to that.

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Any word on a resolution for this market? Presumably @JamesF has a value for what the brier score was on 1 May? Internet Archive is letting me down on this one...

1 month is not enough time for the market to reach a more accurate equilibrium. Existing bets need to be resolved especially long term and those with prior loans. New bets that leverage new system will also be moderated against new fee structure.