What will be the outcome of the Pivot?
50
1.9kṀ12kresolved Feb 13
Resolved
YESB - The site officially announces that they will definitely be implementing The Pivot before 2025
Resolved
YESC - The site actually begins operating The Pivot before 2025
Resolved
YESA - The site is able to find a reliable payment processor who agrees to process money for the Pivot before 2025
Resolved
YESThe site is continuing with the The Pivot model and looks unlikely to stop anytime soon, on January 1st, 2025
Resolved
NOIf on January 1st 2025, the site is continuing with the The Pivot model and looks unlikely to stop anytime soon, then The site has huge financial benefit from The Pivot, either directly from profit or through fundraising.
Resolved
NOIf C happens, the site has incurred serious costs from The Pivot, like very expensive legal battles, fines, reputational damage etc, 6 months later
Resolved
NOIf C happens, The US Government tells the site and/or the payment processor that they must stop doing The Pivot, or there will be serious legal consequences, within 6 months
Resolved
NOIf C happens, the site has huge financial benefit from The Pivot, either directly from profit or through fundraising, 6 months later
Resolved
NOIf C Happens, The site is continuing with the The Pivot model and looks unlikely to stop anytime soon, 6 months later
Resolved
NOIf C happens, the payment processor decides to stop serving the site and the site is unable to easily find another good payment processor, within 6 months
Resolved
YESIf C happens, nothing hugely dramatic has happened either good or bad and the site is overall in a similar position to pre-Pivot, 6 months later
Resolved
YESIf C happens, The site stops doing The Pivot for at least one month, within 6 months
If you would like to be extra helpful, please write down your probabilities for each event occurring so we can average them.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Ziddletwix Just making $10k per month from selling mana probably isn't enough to sustain Manifold though. Something has to happen eventually.
@Joshua looks like A, B, & C can resolve YES. the announcement & official launch happened, sweeps markets are resolving & withdrawals are enabled
