What will be the outcome of the Pivot?
35
341
Ṁ3.3KṀ1.9K
2025
1D
1W
1M
ALL
71%
A - The site is able to find a reliable payment processor who agrees to process money for the Pivot. before 2025
61%
B - The site officially announces that they will definitely be implementing The Pivot. before 2025
67%
C - The site actually begins operating The Pivot before 2025
23%
If C happens, The US Government tells the site and/or the payment processor that they must stop doing The Pivot, or there will be serious legal consequences, within 6 months
38%
If C happens, the payment processor decides to stop serving the site and the site is unable to easily find another good payment processor, within 6 months
48%
If C happens, The site stops doing The Pivot for at least one month, within 6 months
53%
If C Happens, The site is continuing with the The Pivot model and looks unlikely to stop anytime soon, 6 months later
20%
If C happens, the site has huge financial benefit from The Pivot, either directly from profit or through fundraising, 6 months later
39%
If C happens, the site has incurred serious costs from The Pivot, like very expensive legal battles, fines, reputational damage etc, 6 months later
41%
If C happens, nothing hugely dramatic has happened either good or bad and the site is overall in a similar position to pre-Pivot, 6 months later
18%
The site is continuing with the The Pivot model and looks unlikely to stop anytime soon, on January 1st, 2025
36%
If on January 1st 2025, the site is continuing with the The Pivot model and looks unlikely to stop anytime soon, then The site has huge financial benefit from The Pivot, either directly from profit or through fundraising.
If you would like to be extra helpful, please write down your probabilities for each event occurring so we can average them.
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