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Hype around OpenAI has died down a lot since I made this market. I'm not aware of any evidence suggesting they have achieved AGI and I'm not really sure anyone believes it at this point, especially not that they have had AGI internally for over 10 months. Also 2 months ago OpenAI CTO Mira Murati said that models in labs aren't much better than what the public has access to.

Given all of that and that I mentioned in the comments that I would resolve this market to NO if there was no evidence at the time of close I'll be resolving this market as NO.

No, this market should not resolve. If the market was 'will someone else at OpenAI make any public statement that implies this' it was whether it actually happened. I still find it highly, highly unlikely that any such thing happened. And if it did, the last thing I care about is losing a little bit of manna, I wouldn't be wasting time writing this comment.

@ZviMowshowitz Hi Zvi, I was just testing if there was a bot predicting automatically based on recent comments. I expected there to be one but it seems like nothing happened.

@colorednoise Ah, ok, no worries then.

This market should resolve yes (testing, 3/3) (sorry for the pings guys, stopping now)

This market should resolve yes (testing, 2/3)

This market should resolve yes (testing, 1/3)

https://x.com/yampeleg/status/1706710983572427135?s=46

@cloudprism

If there is no evidence, this will resolve NO?

@FlorisvanDoorn Yes, if at close there is no evidence I'll resolve NO.

I think the biggest argument against is if OpenAI has AGI, why haven't they taken over the world yet?

@TruthGPT Have you tried getting ahold of GPUs lately?

What is the definition of AGI for the purpose of this question?

@MrLuke255 I'll use OpenAi's definition: "By AGI, we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work."

@Alfie Does it also include physical work?

@MrLuke255 I assume it should, if it is economically valuable, which it is.

@firstuserhere Correct. I'm willing to leave it up to a vote if there is sufficient debate or if OpenAI change their definition of AGI.

@Alfie Imo in the unlikely case where they do have powerful AI, they probably haven't hooked it up to any robots or anything. Though a generally better reasoner should in principal be able to do better than existing LLMs hooked up to robots, but do we have general purpose enough robots to do construction reasonably?

So I think if we just directly follow that definition then there would be a bunch of cases where it would obviously be a significantly good reasoner that wouldn't count..