Will resolve to all parties that form the next German government. If you want to bet on a party that is not in the list let me know.
Current polls:
@justifieduseofFallibilism you can always leave some limit orders. Maybe someone else wants to bet against you in the coming months.
@justifieduseofFallibilism There is also a dashboard with more markets: https://manifold.markets/news/de-2025
Do you mean "the German government after the next election", "the German government after the next change", or something else?
So, for example, if the current coalition breaks down and is replaced by another one, does that count as "next government"?
What if the government remains the same after the next election?
@PS The next government, no matter how it came to be. If there is no change in the constitution it will be the 21st Bundestag. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Federal_Republic_of_Germany_governments). If the government remains the same after the next election (i.e. there is no peaceful transition of power) it will resolve to the parties that seized power. But this seems very unlikely.
Would you resolve Union as YES if it is CDU but not CSU? /marketwise/will-csu-be-in-the-next-bundestag