Which parties will form the next German federal government?
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43
8.7k
2025
85%
The Union (CDU w/wo CSU)
59%
Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)
50%
Alliance 90/The Greens (Greens)
33%
Free Democratic Party (FDP)
4%
South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW)
3%
Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW)
3%
The Left
1.6%
Alternative for Germany (AfD)

Will resolve to all parties that form the next German government. If you want to bet on a party that is not in the list let me know.

Current polls:

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/

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A market on the next German government must exist and would be cool to trade on,

I find the market,

it has a big subsidy,

all the options are already priced exactly how I would price them, there are no trades I can do

(Imagine this was the Gnu(in that how you spell it) meme)

@justifieduseofFallibilism you can always leave some limit orders. Maybe someone else wants to bet against you in the coming months.

@justifieduseofFallibilism There is also a dashboard with more markets: https://manifold.markets/news/de-2025

Do you mean "the German government after the next election", "the German government after the next change", or something else?

So, for example, if the current coalition breaks down and is replaced by another one, does that count as "next government"?

What if the government remains the same after the next election?

@PS The next government, no matter how it came to be. If there is no change in the constitution it will be the 21st Bundestag. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Federal_Republic_of_Germany_governments). If the government remains the same after the next election (i.e. there is no peaceful transition of power) it will resolve to the parties that seized power. But this seems very unlikely.

can you add Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht

@nikki I'd wait until we know the actual name. /marktwse/name-of-sahra-wagenknechts-new-part

@marktwse since we can now edit answers I'll just go ahead and add it.

Would you resolve Union as YES if it is CDU but not CSU? /marketwise/will-csu-be-in-the-next-bundestag

@marketwise Yes, for the purpose of this question they are treated as one party.

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