This market resolves to YES if credible evidence emerges by August 1, 2025 that supports Elon Musk's claim that there is $500 billion in Social Security and other entitlement fraud due to fake Social Security numbers.

Credible evidence must come from official government sources such as:

• Verifiable audit results my a government agency or reputable, external auditing firm

• Congressional testimony from relevant agency officials

• Department of Justice investigations

The evidence must specifically identify fraud at or exceeding $500 billion annually across entitlement programs.

Musk's claim: https://bsky.app/profile/justinbaragona.bsky.social/post/3lk2govo5dk2s

Since it's subjective what credible evidence is, I'll not participate in this market. For disclosure, I think it's very unlikely that credible evidence will emerge. It would be lovely though if this turns out true and we can safe this much money.

If there is much disagreement of evidence is credible, I might consider a poll or market to establish if evidence will hold up.

• Update 2025-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Threshold for Fraud Evidence:

  • The evidence must indicate fraud within 30% of $500 billion (i.e. $350 billion or more) for the claim to count.

  • Mere order-of-magnitude estimates will not suffice.

• Edit 2025-03-11 7:13am PST: Removed "at least" per comments