Will credible evidence emerge that supports Musk's claim of $500 billion in social security and other entitlement fraud?

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Aug 2

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This market resolves to YES if credible evidence emerges by August 1, 2025 that supports Elon Musk's claim that there is $500 billion in Social Security and other entitlement fraud due to fake Social Security numbers.

Credible evidence must come from official government sources such as:

Verifiable audit results my a government agency or reputable, external auditing firm
Congressional testimony from relevant agency officials
Department of Justice investigations

The evidence must specifically identify fraud at or exceeding $500 billion annually across entitlement programs.

Musk's claim: https://bsky.app/profile/justinbaragona.bsky.social/post/3lk2govo5dk2s

Since it's subjective what credible evidence is, I'll not participate in this market. For disclosure, I think it's very unlikely that credible evidence will emerge. It would be lovely though if this turns out true and we can safe this much money.

If there is much disagreement of evidence is credible, I might consider a poll or market to establish if evidence will hold up.

Update 2025-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Threshold for Fraud Evidence:
- The evidence must indicate fraud within 30% of $500 billion (i.e. $350 billion or more) for the claim to count.
- Mere order-of-magnitude estimates will not suffice.
Edit 2025-03-11 7:13am PST: Removed "at least" per comments

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The GAO estimates it as being between $233B and $521B annually, which meets Musk's estimate of "on the order of $500B" and is a range lower than an order of magnitude. But it's lower than OP's original claim that Musk said "at least $500B" and OP's threshold of $350B. So I'm buying NO.

https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-105833

bought Ṁ750 NO

to be fair to musk, he only said it was "estimated to be on the order of 10% of federal expenditures, you know, half a trillion dollars"

so technically if it was like $200 billion you could claim it's on the order of $500 billion? I don't think it's $200b either though

@Conflux I think if it's within 30% of $500 billion ($350b+) it for count. IMO an order of magnitude is not enough for throwing out numbers on national tv.

@AlexanderTheGreater If that's the policy, you should update the description. The description says "at least $500 billion"

Alternatively, you could stick with the original market description!

Thanks for calling this inconsistency out! The intention is to hold Musk up to his word. Since he gave himself some wiggle room in his statement, I'll remove the "at least"

@AlexanderTheGreater Thanks! But to match what you've said, there are two points in the description where $500 billion is still mentioned. You can copy the AI clarification text "fraud within 30% of $500 billion (i.e. $350 billion or more)" or something similar

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