Dustin Moskovitz, Facebook cofounder, claims Tesla is basically Enron-level fraudulent and that people are going to end up in jail.
At the end of 2026, how true will we deem that to be?
https://fortune.com/2024/04/29/asana-ceo-tesla-next-enron-elon-musk-misled-customers-investors/
FAQ
1. How true is it right now?
As of market creation, 2024 May 2, we're saying by definition that it's 0% true. I'm sure Tesla/Musk haters can point to a list of ways in which it should already be considered partly true. For this to resolve to something other than NO, things well beyond that list have to come to light.
2. [Does ____ count?]
[I don't know how to fill in that blank yet. Ideas solicited! Maybe something like they get busted for faking financial data but the egregiousness is ambiguous and they weather it.]
Resolution Criteria
We'll discuss in the comments! Ask questions and don't trade till things are clarified, but we'll hew to the spirit as articulated here in the description so far.
[ignore any AI-generated updates below this line; I'll update the FAQ when we've settled on clarifications]
Update 2025-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Enron Fraud Definition Update:
Fraudulent Misreporting: If Tesla is fraudulently misreporting numbers, this should count as at least a partial YES for the market resolution.
Honest Reporting Errors: If the discrepancy is due to an error in reporting that gets corrected, with no evidence of fraud, this should resolve as a NO.
Ambiguous Evidence: If there is some indication of fraud but it is not proven in court, this falls into judgment call territory and will likely lean towards a NO.
1,000People are also trading
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevdz4yxpd9o
I don't see this as anything like an Enron style fraud being shown.
Still re "2024 May 2, we're saying by definition that it's 0% true."
Suppose latest at May 2, 2024 seems to be that legal case seemed to be dismissed but subsequently appeal overturned this and eventually someone goes to jail but it is not really an Enron style fraud.
Does this resolve:
0% because not really anything like an Enron style fraud? or
0% because it dates to before May 2 2024? or
Is some +'ve % resolution possible because/if someone at Tesla goes to jail for some vaguely opinion pushing unfair practice reason?
Or can it only resolve yes or at some +'ve % if Tesla's accounts are shown to be seriously misleading?
Taking a slightly different tack to try to distinguish what you mean/understand by an Enron style fraud:
If accounts get restated for some material issue but it is not massive nor is there any suggestion that someone is in serious trouble and might be prosecuted/go to jail, might that merit some +'ve % resolution?
@ChristopherRandles If Tesla is fraudulently misreporting numbers, that would be at least a partial YES. If there's just an error in reporting that gets corrected and there's no evidence it was fraud, that should be a NO. If there's some evidence of fraud but it isn't proven in court, we might be in judgment call territory, but probably closer to NO.
In the parking lot of the mall near me, the local Telsa dealer stores hundreds of new cars. The lot keeps filling up and filling up with more and more brand new cars (and cybertrucks) just sitting there gathering dust. This has been happening (and seems to be worsening) over the course of more than a year. That doesn't indicate fraud, but does seem to indicate some kind of forecasting mismanagement at the least. Or just "something weird". It doesn't seem like a great place to store new cars for months and months at a time. But anyway, while this doesn't seem like a good sign, I bet a strong NO that Tesla is any kind of Enron-level fraud.
This popped into my Google News feel -- timely (and creepy). Apparently this piling up of Tesla inventory in mall parking lots is happening all over the country. Why? https://insideevs.com/news/718406/tesla-vehicles-lot-demand-texas/
@DavidPennock And now of course since Google News knows that I am interested in this topic, I am getting more variations on this theme. This article even mentions the mall near me (Quaker Bridge Mall) where I've been seeing this for over a year: https://insideevs.com/news/720018/thousands-unsold-tesla-evs-parking-lots/
"Thousands more, as it turns out. Besides the initial batch that the internet found sitting at the former Chesterfield Mall, several hundred Tesla-branded EVs are waiting to be delivered at the Quaker Bridge Mall in Lawrenceville, New Jersey, including some Cybertrucks, as seen in the video and Reddit post embedded below."
And very random comment: insideevs is one letter away from insidreevs. Lol.