Dustin Moskovitz, Facebook cofounder, claims Tesla is basically Enron-level fraudulent and that people are going to end up in jail.

At the end of 2026, how true will we deem that to be?

https://fortune.com/2024/04/29/asana-ceo-tesla-next-enron-elon-musk-misled-customers-investors/

FAQ

1. How true is it right now?

As of market creation, 2024 May 2, we're saying by definition that it's 0% true. I'm sure Tesla/Musk haters can point to a list of ways in which it should already be considered partly true. For this to resolve to something other than NO, things well beyond that list have to come to light.

2. [Does ____ count?]

[I don't know how to fill in that blank yet. Ideas solicited! Maybe something like they get busted for faking financial data but the egregiousness is ambiguous and they weather it.]

Resolution Criteria

We'll discuss in the comments! Ask questions and don't trade till things are clarified, but we'll hew to the spirit as articulated here in the description so far.

[ignore any AI-generated updates below this line; I'll update the FAQ when we've settled on clarifications]

• Update 2025-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Enron Fraud Definition Update:

  • Fraudulent Misreporting: If Tesla is fraudulently misreporting numbers, this should count as at least a partial YES for the market resolution.

  • Honest Reporting Errors: If the discrepancy is due to an error in reporting that gets corrected, with no evidence of fraud, this should resolve as a NO.

  • Ambiguous Evidence: If there is some indication of fraud but it is not proven in court, this falls into judgment call territory and will likely lean towards a NO.