Three prongs:
1) China agreeing to AI pause or
2) open AI having $3T revenue or
3) open AI having 80% of global compute by eoy 2028
Inspired by my offer to @ScottAlexander on Twitter
https://x.com/abcampbell/status/1909178653050880152
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about the first resolution criterion, the creator has indicated that 'China agreeing to AI pause' is a reference to a specific narrative or context called 'the deal'.
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the first criterion, the market will resolve to YES if China agrees to a deal or slowdown, even if it is not enforced.
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the criteria for $3T revenue and 80% of global compute, the creator has clarified that these apply exclusively to OpenAI. Other entities, such as Google, will not be considered.
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@TomNeuburg fair.
I said open Ai.
If people feel strongly they want to extend it to anthropic we can amend the contract but people might get mad. I won’t include Google as they are not a “lab” even though they are much closer to $3t
@AlexanderLeCampbell Google's AI efforts seem to be explicitly concentrated in two labs, Deepmind and Google Brain. I assume they break out revenue in their financial statements to at least that level of detail.
I'm confused by not including google/anthropic; it seems pretty obvious AI2027 was trying nto to say they knew which lab would win, just they thought one would.
@AlexanderLeCampbell if you’re going to include Google, it should somehow be a calculation of only their AI lab value. Anthropic should simply be included.