Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, the United States federal government officially launches a major national initiative dedicated primarily to AI safety, alignment, or catastrophic risk mitigation that meets the following criteria:

Financial Threshold: The enactment of federal legislation that appropriates a cumulative total of $7 billion USD or more specifically and primarily dedicated to AI safety research, AI alignment, safety evaluations, or catastrophic AI risk mitigation.

Exclusions:

• Large-scale federal projects dedicated primarily to accelerating AI capabilities, AGI dominance, general scientific discovery, or military integration (such as the 2025 "Genesis Mission" under EO 14363) will not trigger a YES resolution, unless they contain a distinct, explicitly funded sub-program dedicated primarily to AI safety/alignment that meets the $7 billion threshold.

• Funding dedicated primarily to general hardware, compute infrastructure, or semiconductor manufacturing does not count toward the $7 billion AI safety threshold.

Sources of Verification: Resolutions will be verified using official government portals, including the Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov/) for Executive Orders, Congress.gov (Just a moment... ) for enacted legislation, or official press releases from the White House, Department of Energy, or Department of Commerce.

Background

In June 2025, the U.S. AI Safety Institute (USAISI)—initially established in late 2023 under the Biden administration—was rebranded as the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI). Under Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, CAISI's mandate was shifted toward evaluating and enhancing commercial AI innovation and national security rather than enforcing safety standards. While legislative proposals like the bipartisan "Great American AI Act" of June 2026 attempt to codify and authorize $100 million annually for CAISI, a multi-billion dollar federal initiative dedicated strictly to AI safety and alignment remains proposed but unlegislated.