🏅 Top traders

This market led to some fascinating conversations that I’m deeply thankful for.

I think I understand the arguments for doom better now than when I created this market. I think I could (>60% probability?) pass ITT with someone who holds the tradition MIRI worldview and accompanying high p_doom. I continue to take the MIRI concerns seriously, but they far from dominate my worldview.

I find myself just as optimistic about humanity’s capacity to retain control of our destiny as I was when I created this market.

I feel especially optimistic about:

• prosaic approaches (oversight techniques, probing, WTSG)

• preparedness work, RSPs, control, governance

• progress in interpretability

My credences in typical MIRI scenarios are substantial, but now mostly below 50%. A lot of my early hesitance wrt the MIRI arguments, which I initially suspected to be borne of ignorance, I now feel more confident in.

I am still working on improving my model of the alignment problem. I continue to be excited about many threads involving threat modeling and predicting FOOM.

I remain excited about having conversations about any and all of these topics, and plan to actively seek them out in 2024.

Would you currently describe yourself as "control-pilled"?

@qurat Yes