
By the end of 2024, will at least 1 substantive Linux kernel commit have been written entirel by a large language model?
20
1kṀ3518resolved Mar 26
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
It only counts if it's in mainline kernel.
Substantiveness is up to personal judgement, but I will intend to bias toward being lenient about what commits count as substantive. Simple formatting changes will not count.
Mar 14, 2:47pm: By the end of 2024, will at least 1 substantive Linux kernel commit have been written solely by a large language model? → By the end of 2024, will at least 1 substantive Linux kernel commit have been written entirel by a large language model?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ51 | |
2 | Ṁ33 | |
3 | Ṁ22 | |
4 | Ṁ20 | |
5 | Ṁ17 |
Sort by:
Officially, the kernel doesn't accept such commits: https://social.kernel.org/notice/AbI3mXs8Hwvj2u9V7Q
So, any such commit would have to be surreptitious, and would probably be reverted if discovered.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?
30% chance
The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years
42% chance
The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 2 years
29% chance
Will a Large Language Model save a human life through medical advice by the end of 2025?
90% chance
Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027?
8% chance
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
79% chance
Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
36% chance
Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?
43% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance
Will one person be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, with the help of AI, by EOY 2030?
30% chance