Will the Linux kernel still be an actively maintained project in 2050?
Will the Linux kernel still be an actively maintained project in 2050?
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Resolves yes if on 1 January 2050 the Linux kernel project continues to exist, with development activity ongoing.
A fork of the main kernel project doesn't count unless there is some exceptional circumstance where there is truly overwhelming community consensus that the fork is the "real" project (think a situation where a supermajority of prominent kernel developers and most of the key distros switch over instantly due to a legal dispute or a few individuals being disruptive, not a situation where someone forks Linux because it's dead and they want it as a retrocomputing project).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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