By the end of 2024, will at least 1 substantive Linux kernel commit have been written entirel by a large language model? | Manifold

By the end of 2024, will at least 1 substantive Linux kernel commit have been written entirel by a large language model?

20

1kṀ3518

Dec 31

3%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

It only counts if it's in mainline kernel.

Substantiveness is up to personal judgement, but I will intend to bias toward being lenient about what commits count as substantive. Simple formatting changes will not count.

Mar 14, 2:47pm: ~~By the end of 2024, will at least 1 substantive Linux kernel commit have been written solely by a large language model?~~ → By the end of 2024, will at least 1 substantive Linux kernel commit have been written entirel by a large language model?

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

Officially, the kernel doesn't accept such commits: https://social.kernel.org/notice/AbI3mXs8Hwvj2u9V7Q

So, any such commit would have to be surreptitious, and would probably be reverted if discovered.

Greg K-H (@gregkh@social.kernel.org)

This came up in a private thread about a kernel patch review where the contents were created with an "AI" tool, so I figured I might as well put it somewhere a bit more public as people don't seem ...

Related questions

By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?

Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?

The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 2 years

Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027?

Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?

Will one person be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, with the help of AI, by EOY 2030?

The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years

Will a Large Language Model save a human life through medical advice by the end of 2025?

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?

Related questions

By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?

Will one person be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, with the help of AI, by EOY 2030?

Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?

The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years

The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 2 years

Will a Large Language Model save a human life through medical advice by the end of 2025?

Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027?

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?

Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules