By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity. | Manifold

By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.

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See: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BzYmJYECAc3xyCTt6/the-plan-2022-update#comments

Dec 1, 9:24pm: ~~By 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.~~ → By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.

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From his update for 2024, he said that he is no longer as optimistic:

This market seems to be somewhat correlated with a question like "Will Reasoning Models lead to TAI before 2030ish?" now.

By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity., 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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