By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.
30
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25%
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See: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BzYmJYECAc3xyCTt6/the-plan-2022-update#comments
Dec 1, 9:24pm: By 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity. → By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.
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From his update for 2024, he said that he is no longer as optimistic:
This market seems to be somewhat correlated with a question like "Will Reasoning Models lead to TAI before 2030ish?" now.
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