How many years until the singularity? (Since December 2022)
45
149
1.1k
2049
13
expected

This market will be resolved when a recursively self-improving AI outpowers the combined might of human civilization. At least, I'll try my best to close it.

Dec 7, 6:04pm: How many years until the singularity? → How many years until the singularity? (Since December 2022)

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bought Ṁ10 of LOWER

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bought Ṁ15 of HIGHER

I'm just a simple Luddite with a quarter

bought Ṁ25 of HIGHER

Some quick thoughts.

Does the resolution require a runaway singularity? How does it resolve in a “powerful, but passive AI” scenario where human operators retain high-level control? In particular, limiting its ability to willy-nilly remove its safeguards – motivations (e.g. modify read-only ethics module) and access to modalities (i.e. escape sandboxing), etc. In simple terms, if it ends up essentially being a superhuman pet, it would not really be the kind of qualitative, unpredictable, existential shift that I associate with the “singularity” term, but more like a large but still quantitative improvement on Google and other “extended mind” tools.

In contrast, I would say the other edge cases – e.g. the “powerful and unshackled, but benevolent” or “powerful and notionally shackled, but dangerously misspecified” scenarios – would qualify as a singularity because they include significant loss of control. And what I consider to be the prototypical scenario is someone basically unleashing a fully autonomous and capable system into the world with seriously inadequate safeguards or none at all.

predicts LOWER

@yaboi69 Yes, a runaway singularity is required for resolution.

predicts LOWER

Who the heck is betting up to 25 years. Insanity.

bought Ṁ35 of LOWER

The market goes 1-100. If you think it’s >100, probably just buy a bunch of yes and make a comment.

predicts LOWER

@Alana Likewise if you think it’s <1, lol.

I’ll do my darnedest to resolve this market when the singularity arrives.

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