How do you decide how much to bet on a Manifold market ?

May 18

M$1,392 bet

Currently betting requires two decisions: 1. YES or NO 2. How much should I bet? What is the primary thing to consider when deciding how much to bet? Will resolve to the most popular answer. Close date updated to 2022-05-18 11:59 pm

#Manifold

Austin answered

Bring the % to a nice, auspicious number

50%

Akhil Wable answered

Expected Profit (avoid well calibrated markets)

27%

Adam answered

bring the market 2/3rds of the way to your credence, assuming you have enough liquidity to do so

11%

Undox answered

F(current prob, expected prob, resolve date, rugpull/abandonment/incorrect resolution adjustments, IR adjustment, fun factor, new live news factor, whalebait tactor, isDPMMadness) where F is a physical neural net

Akhil Wable answered

Mood & Vibes

1.0%

Undox answered

For whalebait markets like this one, enough to swing the least popular answer to 51% a few seconds before the close

0.6%

nmehndir answered

Kelly criterion

0.6%

Selon Nerias answered

Pick a number then increase or decrease it by one till you hit the edge where the payout is still rounded up (giving you a slight edge)

0.4%

Austin answered

All your remaining mana #yolo

0.1%

Akhil Wable answered

Strength of Conviction (indpendant of current price)

0.1%

Austin answereda month ago

Bring the % to a nice, auspicious number

50%

Akhil Wable bought M$1a month ago

Would pull you into a war with worshippers of chaos

Diatom Polytope bought M$3a month ago

25% now

Rachel Shu 22 days ago

Considering adding 190 shares here to fulfil

Akhil Wable answereda month ago

Expected Profit (avoid well calibrated markets)

27%

Jack is betting bring the ...y to do so 22 days ago

Can those who use this approach elaborate on what this means?

Gurkenglas is betting Expected P...d markets) 22 days ago

Do I, by making my trade, expect to turn a profit? That doesn't necessarily mean I think the market resolves the way I'm trading, it means I expect to turn my stake into more mana later. I could expect wrong evidence to appear, I could expect people to buy their insurance from me, and so on.

Gurkenglas is betting Expected P...d markets) 22 days ago

(And of course, will I make more % per time than on the other markets I could be staking my mana on?)

Matt P sold M$18114 days ago

Selling not because I now disagree with this answer, but because the volume of this market is low enough that there's a decent chance someone with a ton of mana could come in at the last minute and force it to an unpopular answer, taking all the rest. Much rather just take my 70% profit now.

Matt P 14 days ago

(one way to prevent this issue would be to have questions that resolve based on the number of people who vote for a given option, rather than the percentages... so it'd still be a probability market but you'd be betting on the result of a poll rather than the result of the market itself)

Akhil Wable is betting Expected P...d markets) 13 days ago

@MattPrice Agreed - I did say most “popular”. And I’ll resolve this once one can access number of people who bet on an option.

Matt P 13 days ago

@AkhilWable wait, so you *are* planning to resolve this based on the number of people who bet on each option, rather than the highest percentage option?

Akhil Wable is betting Expected P...d markets) 12 days ago

@MattPrice Yes, that was the spirit of the question. I’ve extended the date so those who thought otherwise can adjust

Gurkenglas is betting Expected P...d markets) 11 days ago

@AkhilWable Does someone who has sold all they held in an answer still count?

Adam answereda month ago

bring the market 2/3rds of the way to your credence, assuming you have enough liquidity to do so

11%

Akhil Wable bought M$1a month ago

Interesting. How do you evaluate opportunity costs and diversification given the limited liquidity?

Jack bought M$122 days ago

For now, I mostly don't worry about it. I find that in the vast majority of markets, small bets move the market a lot, so liquidity considerations don't usually come into play for me.

Undox answereda month ago

Undox bought M$10a month ago

Oh… and liquidity of course 😃

Akhil Wable answereda month ago

Mood & Vibes

1.0%

Conflux bought M$10a month ago

What I do

Undox answereda month ago

For whalebait markets like this one, enough to swing the least popular answer to 51% a few seconds before the close

0.6%

nmehndir answereda month ago

Kelly criterion

0.6%

Selon Nerias answered22 days ago

Pick a number then increase or decrease it by one till you hit the edge where the payout is still rounded up (giving you a slight edge)

0.4%

Martin Randall is betting Bring the ...ous number 22 days ago

Doesn't actually work, fractional M$ are calculated behind the scenes.

Matt P 13 days ago

@MartinRandall I'll believe it when I see it.

Austin answereda month ago

All your remaining mana #yolo

0.1%

Akhil Wable answereda month ago

Strength of Conviction (indpendant of current price)

0.1%

General Comments

Akhil Wable 12 days ago

This will resolve based on the most “popular” option i.e number of people who bet on each option. NOT the option with the most money. Have extended the date so that those who thought otherwise can adjust their bets.