How do you decide how much to bet on a Manifold market ?

920Ṁ1392

resolved Nov 27

100%50%

Bring the % to a nice, auspicious number

6%Other

27%

Expected Profit (avoid well calibrated markets)

1.0%

Mood & Vibes

0.1%

Strength of Conviction (indpendant of current price)

0.1%

All your remaining mana #yolo

11%

bring the market 2/3rds of the way to your credence, assuming you have enough liquidity to do so

0.6%

Kelly criterion

F(current prob, expected prob, resolve date, rugpull/abandonment/incorrect resolution adjustments, IR adjustment, fun factor, new live news factor, whalebait tactor, isDPMMadness) where F is a physical neural net

0.6%

For whalebait markets like this one, enough to swing the least popular answer to 51% a few seconds before the close

0.4%

Pick a number then increase or decrease it by one till you hit the edge where the payout is still rounded up (giving you a slight edge)

Currently betting requires two decisions: 1. YES or NO 2. How much should I bet? What is the primary thing to consider when deciding how much to bet? Will resolve to the most popular answer. Close date updated to 2022-05-18 11:59 pm

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