How do you decide how much to bet on a Manifold market ?

920Ṁ1392

resolved Nov 27

100%50%

Bring the % to a nice, auspicious number

6%Other

27%

Expected Profit (avoid well calibrated markets)

1.0%

Mood & Vibes

0.1%

Strength of Conviction (indpendant of current price)

0.1%

All your remaining mana #yolo

11%

bring the market 2/3rds of the way to your credence, assuming you have enough liquidity to do so

0.6%

Kelly criterion

F(current prob, expected prob, resolve date, rugpull/abandonment/incorrect resolution adjustments, IR adjustment, fun factor, new live news factor, whalebait tactor, isDPMMadness) where F is a physical neural net

0.6%

For whalebait markets like this one, enough to swing the least popular answer to 51% a few seconds before the close

0.4%

Pick a number then increase or decrease it by one till you hit the edge where the payout is still rounded up (giving you a slight edge)

Currently betting requires two decisions: 1. YES or NO 2. How much should I bet? What is the primary thing to consider when deciding how much to bet? Will resolve to the most popular answer. Close date updated to 2022-05-18 11:59 pm

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🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ146
2		Ṁ81
3		Ṁ50
4		Ṁ40
5		Ṁ17

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@MartinRandall sorry to override your N/A but I did do the analysis on this and I am quite confident the result is supposed to be "Bring the % to a nice, auspicious number":

I don't know that we can paste preformatted text into this text editor, so here is a screenshot:

The option "4" is the auspicious number one. There were exactly 10 users who placed a bet on that option, per the creator's instructions:

> This will resolve based on the most “popular” option i.e number of people who bet on each option. NOT the option with the most money.

In case anyone is wondering, one user sold all their shares of that option, but there are no instructions about selling shares. (More than one user sold all their shares of option "1".)

I am quite happy to resolve this to the auspicious number answer.

@Eliza I'm fine with that override

@akhil Can this resolve?

Will resolve this as N/A when I'm able to (February 17, 2024.)

This might be impossible to resolve at this point; it should resolve to the "number of people who bet on each option, NOT the option with the most money," but I don't see any way to see what that number is, since all trades are displayed as coming from "A trader" with no other information given:

I feel like this ought to resolve N/A as a result. Thoughts? Maybe someone who knows more about the API than me can find a way to figure out how many individual traders bought each option?

This will resolve based on the most “popular” option i.e number of people who bet on each option. NOT the option with the most money. Have extended the date so that those who thought otherwise can adjust their bets.

(one way to prevent this issue would be to have questions that resolve based on the number of people who vote for a given option, rather than the percentages... so it'd still be a probability market but you'd be betting on the result of a poll rather than the result of the market itself)

@MattPrice Agreed - I did say most “popular”. And I’ll resolve this once one can access number of people who bet on an option.

@AkhilWable wait, so you *are* planning to resolve this based on the number of people who bet on each option, rather than the highest percentage option?

@MattPrice Yes, that was the spirit of the question. I’ve extended the date so those who thought otherwise can adjust

@AkhilWable Does someone who has sold all they held in an answer still count?

Selling not because I now disagree with this answer, but because the volume of this market is low enough that there's a decent chance someone with a ton of mana could come in at the last minute and force it to an unpopular answer, taking all the rest. Much rather just take my 70% profit now.

(And of course, will I make more % per time than on the other markets I could be staking my mana on?)

Do I, by making my trade, expect to turn a profit? That doesn't necessarily mean I think the market resolves the way I'm trading, it means I expect to turn my stake into more mana later. I could expect wrong evidence to appear, I could expect people to buy their insurance from me, and so on.

Doesn't actually work, fractional M$ are calculated behind the scenes.

@MartinRandall I'll believe it when I see it.

Considering adding 190 shares here to fulfil

Can those who use this approach elaborate on what this means?

For now, I mostly don't worry about it. I find that in the vast majority of markets, small bets move the market a lot, so liquidity considerations don't usually come into play for me.