This question will resolve to YES if Manifold market makes a change to the mana/dollar exchange rate anytime in 2023.
This question will resolve to NO if Manifold does not make a change and the current exchange rate is preserved for the remainder of 2023 which is 100 mana for 1 dollar.
Based on supply/demand the amount of total mana seems to be going up daily so the real power of the dollar for buying mana is diluted continuously. For this to look more like a real market the mana should float, no?
Note for everyone coming here because mana is on sale, do not just blindly trust Joshua! Some other markets have decided that there has been a change to how many dollars are required to get some mana:
Fair point! I dunno who will be resolving this. I could be wrong, and I don't intend to take a position here now that I've sold because of the uncertainty. That said, I think SG's comment leads to think a "no" resolution here is more in the spirit of the market, as it was in the inflation market
@Joshua I forgot to include the important detail in my advertisement/comment: the code to buy mana is BLKFRI and it's only good for today.
@Eliza Just realized this is the same creator that asked me to make two markets regarding Donald Trump a couple months ago.
Warning to anyone coming here bc of the black friday mana sale:
OP appears to have deleted his account, so he won't be able to resolve this. Note that this similiar market below did not resolve yes based on today's discount, and I expect that this market will likely also not resolve yes based on that discount:
Another arbitrage opp: https://manifold.markets/AdamTreat/should-manifold-let-the-mana-float
Just saw this related question for arbitrage opp: https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-mana-officially-inflate-relati
I'm curious about opinions on a variation on the 'should the rate float' question: should we have negative interest rates to combat mana inflation, as in a small percentage of mana disappearing every so often?
@BarrDetwix As long as we can speculate on what the 'central bank' will do I'll be happy
Regardless of how this question resolves... do you think manifold should float the exchange rate? Like, I can't see how a fixed exchange makes sense in this case as the total amount of mana is going up up up... Use this comment to express your opinion if Manifold should let the mana float...
@AdamTreat I think they should let it float but not by any fixed algorithm or anything. They should control it like a central bank with inscrutable comments given on some fixed schedule that allow degen betters to open speculative markets on how it will change... :)