If Manifold ceases to allow mana withdrawals, will mana experience significant inflation within the next year? | Manifold

If Manifold ceases to allow mana withdrawals, will mana experience significant inflation within the next year?

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If Manifold turns off the ability to turn mana into charitable donations or other items of significant value as described here, will the quantities of mana in use on Manifold experience a significant increase, along with a decrease in how much traders intrinsically value 1 mana?

This is common problem in play economies that give out bonuses to reward behavior they want to encourage, but don't have a good way to remove currency from the ecosystem. See the former MTG trading site Pucatrade for a nice case study on how abundant free money giveaways led to runaway inflation and the collapse of the site economy and eventual shutdown of the site.

If Manifold turns off the ability to cash out mana and significant inflation occurs, this market immediately resolves YES, no matter what happens after that.
If Manifold turns off the ability to cash out mana and no inflation occurs for a year, this market resolves NO.
If Manifold turns off the ability to cash out mana and then turns it back on after less than a year and no inflation occurred in the mean time, this market remains open without resolving until the next time they turn it off. (If it looks like the reason they turned it back on was due to signs of inflation about to occur, that will be sufficient to resolve this to YES.)

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ300 YES

Mana is being devalued 10x and will no longer be donatable to charity; should resolve yes

Recommendation: "Inflation is defined as the average percentage difference of mana balance in [10, 25, 50, 75, 90]th percentile users, as measured at the beginning of the year and end of the year".

If some of those percentiles are different("massive inflation for whales, massive deflation for everyone else that keeps losing money"), then the ground-truth calculation is to resolve PROB to a percentage calculated over all percentiles rather than just 5.

Significant can be whatever you want, but using that metric.

Hmm. Any thoughts from other users?

bought Ṁ40 of YES

How are you defining/measuring inflation? Because if mana suddenly has less value because you can't redeem it, is that inflation? Or if mana suddenly gets mass-donated to charity, that would be deflationary, right?

@MichaelWheatley Inflation meaning that mana seems worth less subjectively due to existing in greater quantities.

For example, if Manifold ever changes the cost to buy mana to make it cheaper than 1 cent per mana, that would probably mean this market should have already resolved YES.

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If Manifold removes the option to send mana to charity or redeem it for anything else of value, will Manifold be valued at >=$33 million USD before the end of 2024?

If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve?

Will I blow up all Mana and quit Manifold by July 1st 2024 ?

Will Manifold devalue mana by more than 10% in the next month? (Current plan is 90%)

If Manifold continues to allow mana to be sent to charity or redeemed for other objects of value, will Manifold be valued at >=$33 million USD before the end of 2024?

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Will Austin loan another user over 10k mana on Manifold before the end of 2024?

If Manifold reduces the subsidy tax from 25% to 10%, will more mana be burned overall?

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Related questions

If Manifold removes the option to send mana to charity or redeem it for anything else of value, will Manifold be valued at >=$33 million USD before the end of 2024?

Will it be possible to convert mana into real money either on Manifold or any other platform by 2025?

If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve?

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Will I blow up all Mana and quit Manifold by July 1st 2024 ?

Will Austin loan another user over 10k mana on Manifold before the end of 2024?

Will Manifold devalue mana by more than 10% in the next month? (Current plan is 90%)

If Manifold reduces the subsidy tax from 25% to 10%, will more mana be burned overall?

If Manifold continues to allow mana to be sent to charity or redeemed for other objects of value, will Manifold be valued at >=$33 million USD before the end of 2024?

Should Manifold let the Mana float?