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Note for everyone coming here because mana is on sale, do not just blindly trust Joshua! Some other markets have decided that there has been a change to how many dollars are required to get some mana:

/mana/will-manifold-change-mana-prices

Fair point! I dunno who will be resolving this. I could be wrong, and I don't intend to take a position here now that I've sold because of the uncertainty. That said, I think SG's comment leads to think a "no" resolution here is more in the spirit of the market, as it was in the inflation market

@Joshua I forgot to include the important detail in my advertisement/comment: the code to buy mana is BLKFRI and it's only good for today.

@Eliza Just realized this is the same creator that asked me to make two markets regarding Donald Trump a couple months ago.

Warning to anyone coming here bc of the black friday mana sale:

OP appears to have deleted his account, so he won't be able to resolve this. Note that this similiar market below did not resolve yes based on today's discount, and I expect that this market will likely also not resolve yes based on that discount:

and turn towards a debt backed fiat, how could they?

Another arbitrage opp: https://manifold.markets/AdamTreat/should-manifold-let-the-mana-float

Should Manifold let the Mana float?

59% chance. This will resolve YES iff the market reaches > 95% inclusive on the title question representing a positive consensus. This will resolve NO iff the market reaches < 5% inclusive on the title question representing a negative consensus. ** The market needs to have at least 50 distinct traders in order to close to represent consensus. ** If Manifold let's mana float - changes the current conversion rate of 100 mana / 1 dollar - before the above conditions are met, then this market will automatically close as YES. The closing will be pushed out indefinitely as long as possible the above conditions are met. If Manifold closes the market earlier or forces resolution before the conditions are met, then it will resolve in whatever the majority position is at time of closing. See these markets for something similar: https://manifold.markets/AdamTreat/will-manifold-let-mana-float-in-202 https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-mana-officially-inflate-relati

Just saw this related question for arbitrage opp: https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-mana-officially-inflate-relati

Will mana officially inflate relative to the U.S. dollar in 2023?

54% chance. Resolves YES if, at any point this year, the price of mana (in USD) is decreased, or the amount of USD you can donate to charity with a given amount of mana is decreased. Otherwise resolves NO.

I'm curious about opinions on a variation on the 'should the rate float' question: should we have negative interest rates to combat mana inflation, as in a small percentage of mana disappearing every so often?

@BarrDetwix As long as we can speculate on what the 'central bank' will do I'll be happy

Regardless of how this question resolves... do you think manifold should float the exchange rate? Like, I can't see how a fixed exchange makes sense in this case as the total amount of mana is going up up up... Use this comment to express your opinion if Manifold should let the mana float...

@AdamTreat I think they should let it float but not by any fixed algorithm or anything. They should control it like a central bank with inscrutable comments given on some fixed schedule that allow degen betters to open speculative markets on how it will change... :)

Hmm, is this just about the cost to purchase mana? Or does it include the ability to donate mana?

@Joshua Just about the cost

@Joshua Presumably both would stay the same