18
แน€8.7k
resolved May 21
Resolved
YES

This will resolve YES iff the market reaches > 95% inclusive on the title question representing a positive consensus. This will resolve NO iff the market reaches < 5% inclusive on the title question representing a negative consensus.

** The market needs to have at least 50 distinct traders in order to close to represent consensus.

** If Manifold let's mana float - changes the current conversion rate of 100 mana / 1 dollar - before the above conditions are met, then this market will automatically close as YES.

The closing will be pushed out indefinitely as long as possible the above conditions are met. If Manifold closes the market earlier or forces resolution before the conditions are met, then it will resolve in whatever the majority position is at time of closing.

See these markets for something similar:
https://manifold.markets/AdamTreat/will-manifold-let-mana-float-in-202

https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-mana-officially-inflate-relati

Get แน€600 play money

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bought แน€2,000 YES

This should resolve YES, the conversion rate is no longer 100M to $1

@Arky Not very float-y, though, innit?

@JamesBakerc884 I was just going off this: โ€œIf Manifold let's mana float - changes the current conversion rate of 100 mana / 1 dollar - before the above conditions are met, then this market will automatically close as YES.โ€

I feel like this is pretty unambiguous, the conversion rate definitely changed.

@Arky I agree, mod resolving this one.

bought แน€10 NO

I think, the better strategy to manage the value of mana is to address mana faucets and sinks (inputs/outputs) rather than fiddling with the conversion rate.

@ShitakiIntaki I strongly agree. Letting the mana conversion rate change messes up incentives around buying and donating mana a lot.

If Manifold let's mana float - changes the current conversion rate of 100 mana / 1 dollar

I was not familiar with the term of art, as posed in the market title/question, however I infer from this inclusion that float, simply means "change [relative to the United States Dollar (USD)]" in contrast to "anchoring" the value of mana relative to the USD via constant/fixed exchange rates via purchase[, and/or redemption (in the case of donations to charity)].

predicted YES

@ShitakiIntaki yes. it just means that they change the conversion rate. i think they should because mana is decreasing in power every day with more mana coming on the market in form of loans and boosts etc. that means buying mana today is worth less than what you bought yesterday and so on.

I think they should change it, but not according to a formula and should do so at either regular periods or give some fwd looking statements so we can bet when/how/if they will change it etc aka like a central bank :)

@AdamTreat theoretically mana is both "worthless", because it is just play currency, and "fixed worth" because the redemption for charity.

The danger would seem to be that the charity redemption anchor point is not indefinitely sustainable because of the mana faucets, like daily bonuses, and to a degree loans (these get repaid eventually and should net zero but the danger here are abandoned accounts that go negative so the net zero only works as an IOU, and there is no interest rate to offset the effects ofaccounts effectively in default)

It is also my firm hope that Manifold also releases periodic statements of inscrutable meaning so we can bet on when/how the exchange rate will change. :)

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