This is one of 25 props in the tenth annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:

https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2025-narcissist-forecasting-contest

It will be adjudicated by judges as described in the fine print of the entry form:

https://forms.gle/Zh6vvRw2YgdYSdgV6

• Update 2025-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated they will use the following sources to investigate and determine the outcome:

  • Press reports

  • howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com

  • whoisinspace.com

• Update 2025-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified their interpretation that will be presented to the contest judges:

  • "In space" will likely be interpreted as requiring orbit.

  • Including people on suborbital flights would be considered inconsistent with the market's premise.

• Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has reinforced their interpretation which will be presented to the contest judges for final adjudication:

  • The resolution will likely depend on whether orbit was an implied requirement of the market question.

  • Flights that are suborbital, even if they pass the Kármán line, may not be counted.

• Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution process in response to a user question:

  • The final decision will be made by the judges of the underlying forecasting contest, not the market creator.

  • The creator cannot guarantee that the judges' decision will be consistent with the resolution of other similar markets on Manifold.

  • The key point of ambiguity for the judges is whether being "in space" requires being in orbit.

• Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed the resolution process in response to a user question:

  • The market will be resolved based on the final ruling of the judges from the underlying forecasting contest.

  • The creator will wait until the judges have made their ruling before resolving the market, which may cause a delay in resolution.