By July 1, will the world break the current record (19) for total number of people in space simultaneously?
Basic
2
Ṁ40Jul 3
34%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is one of 25 props in the tenth annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2025-narcissist-forecasting-contest
It will be adjudicated by judges as described in the fine print of the entry form:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will we set a new record for number of people in space by mid 2025?
40% chance
Will there be 50 people in space at any moment before 2030?
31% chance
Will there be 100 people in space at the same time before 2030?
20% chance
Will there be a new record for people orbiting earth by the end of 2025?
45% chance
When will be the first day that 100 or more humans are in space?
2036
Will there be 25 or more people in space orbiting earth at the end of 2026?
30% chance
Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?
28% chance
By the end of 2029, will anyone surpass Valeri Polyakov's record for longest time continuously spent in space? (437 days.)
32% chance
Will anyone break the Apollo 13 crew's record for furthest people from Earth before 2030?
80% chance
Will someone break the record for longest streak of days spent in space by EOY 2027? (437 days)
20% chance