Will there be 100 people in space at the same time before 2030?
52
2.8k
2030
29%
chance

As determined by https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/ or another reliable source.

The record as of market creation is 19 people in space at once.

If case of ambiguity, "in space" means above the Kármán line. There's no requirement that they be in orbit.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
predicts NO

IMO, you are not gonna get to 100 people by tallying up 10 people on the ISS, 7 on the Chinese station, 3 on a crew rotation flight that launched to the ISS earlier that day, 4 on an Artemis mission around the moon, 6 millionares on a suborbital flight that technically touches space for a few minutes, etc.

If you want to get to 100 people in space by 2030, you are going to need to add at least one Starship crammed with people. IMO, the idea of manned starship flights by 2030 seems pretty plausible. But there is a big gap between Artemis-style Starship flights (with say 4-12 people on board), versus mars-colonization-style flights transporting many dozens of people at a time. Considering that Starship has no abort system, I'd be surprised if regulators even allowed high-capacity flights of Starship before it had demonstrated, say, 100 successful launches & landings.

Even if SpaceX decided to make mars colonization their top priority (rather than making money by deploying their Starlink constellation or getting paid to launch other people's satellites), the first couple of mars launch windows wouldn't involve large numbers of astronauts. The first mars launch windows would be unmanned cargo flights; later launch windows would bring a small team of ~10 astronauts t.o set up an initial base, along with more cargo flights carrying things like solar panels, compact nuclear reactors, fuel production plants, life-support equipment, etc. There are only three Mars launch windows before 2030 -- 2024, 2026, and 2029. So even a full-steam mars colonization push starting today, with zero delays, wouldn't involve anything close to 100 people in space at one time.

So the only way that this can work is if SpaceX decides to start flying dozens and dozens of people around the moon on tourist cruises (or point-to-point on the earth, perhaps delivering a squadron of soldiers in a demonstration for the US military). That seems like a very unlikely priority for them.

predicts YES

Not sure how accurate the website you are using to verify is. Appears to list Kayla Barron as still in space for 410 days and I am 90 percent sure she is on the ground and spent less than 6 months in space.

@SuperTaxGenius If howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com displays incorrect information, I'll do my best to use correct information instead.

predicts NO
predicts NO

I don't see this happening (<15%), as it would basically require Starship Point 2 Point or possibly orbital tourism at great scale, neither of which seem likely to happen before 2030. Keep in mind 2030 could be before HLS has landed on the moon with people if NASA delay the artemis program even more.

I assume this would count if they are on another body?

@LivInTheLookingGlass Yes, even if that body has an atmosphere.

Related

@LivInTheLookingGlass Oh, didn't see this one. Thanks.

Comment hidden