Resolves based on the number of drugs that will be listed here, once the 2025 page is up and complete.
I bet "No", because based on my analysis, the probability of approving 50 or more novel drugs in 2025 is 72.8%, which is higher than 50%.
The predicted approval numbers in FDA per year until 2025 are forecasted by using the approval new drug numbers in FDA from 2015 to 2022. As a result, 56.5 (95% CI 35.0 - 78.1, S.D 10.77) was shown as a predicted approval number in 2025. The probability of approving 50 or more novel drugs in 2025 will be 72.8% by calculating based on this data.
Therefore, I believe 50 or more new drugs will be approved in FDA in 2025.
Resource:
Retrieved by 10.25.2003, U.S. Food & Drug Administration, Novel Drug Approvals for 2022