This market resolves based on the earliest date on which a serious candidate publicly enters the race for President of the United States in the 2028 election cycle.
For purposes of this market, a candidate shall be considered to have "entered the race" when they publicly announce their candidacy, establish a presidential exploratory committee, file a Statement of Candidacy (FEC Form 2), or otherwise take an action that is generally recognized by major national media outlets as the beginning of a presidential campaign.
This market will resolve to the day that the candidate entered the race, but may wait to be resolved until I can determine if the seriousness criteria have been satisfied.
DEFINITION OF SERIOUS CANDIDATE
A candidate is considered serious if, within 90 days of entering the race, they satisfy at least one of the following criteria:
NATIONAL POLLING THRESHOLD
The candidate receives at least 2% support in a national poll of likely or registered voters conducted by a nationally recognized polling organization.
MAJOR ELECTED OFFICE OR EQUIVALENT STATUS
At the time of entry, the candidate currently holds or previously held one of the following positions:
President of the United States
Vice President of the United States
United States Senator
Governor of a U.S. state or territory
Cabinet Secretary
Member of the U.S. House of Representatives with at least four years of service
Mayor of a U.S. city with a population exceeding 250,000
MAJOR CAMPAIGN ORGANIZATION
The candidate reports at least $1 million in contributions or expenditures to the Federal Election Commission within 90 days of entering the race.
DEBATE OR MEDIA RECOGNITION STANDARD
The candidate is broadly recognized by major national political media organizations as a plausible contender for a major-party nomination, as evidenced by coverage from at least three of the following organizations describing the candidate as a presidential contender, major candidate, or significant candidate:
The New York Times
The Washington Post
Associated Press
Reuters
CNN
ABC News
CBS News
NBC News
Politico
Notwithstanding any other provision of these rules, a person shall not be considered a serious candidate if there is clear and convincing evidence that they are not genuinely seeking election as President of the United States.
Evidence that a person is not genuinely seeking the presidency includes, but is not limited to:
Public statements that they are not running for president.
Public statements that any filing, announcement, or campaign activity is intended primarily as a publicity stunt, protest, parody, performance art, issue advocacy campaign, or other purpose unrelated to winning the presidency.
Public statements indicating that they have no intention of seeking ballot access in enough jurisdictions to obtain an Electoral College majority.
Public statements indicating that they do not intend to serve if elected.
Public statements indicating that they are not actively pursuing the nomination or election.
A candidate who satisfies one or more seriousness criteria shall nevertheless be excluded if such statements clearly demonstrate that the candidate does not intend to seek or obtain the office of President.
In ambiguous cases, the default presumption shall be that a candidate is seeking the presidency unless their statements or conduct clearly indicate otherwise.
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