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MANIFOLD
Of these potential 2028 candidates for president, who will be the first 3 to officially run?
2
Ṁ325Ṁ80
2028
45%
Rahm emanuel
50%
Gavin newsom
34%
AOC
34%
Kamala harris
34%
Josh shapiro
50%
Jon ossoff
50%
Ro khanna
34%
Jon stewart
50%
Pete buttigieg
50%
Jb pritzker
50%
Mark kelly
50%
Andy beshear
24%
James Talarico

No more names will be added

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "YES" for the first three individuals from the provided list who officially declare their candidacy for the 2028 U.S. Presidential election. The rest will resolve no

An "official run" is defined as filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC)

The market will resolve based on the chronological order of these filings or announcements. If multiple candidates announce on the same day, they will be ranked by the time of day if available, or otherwise alphabetical order of surname. https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/president/ and credible national news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, or major network reporting).

Background

The 2028 U.S. Presidential election cycle will begin following the conclusion of the 2024 election. The individuals listed are frequently cited in political commentary as potential candidates within the Democratic Party or as high-profile political figures. As of May 2026, none of the individuals listed have officially launched a campaign for the 2028 presidency. Candidates often form exploratory committees or launch PACs prior to an official run, but these actions do not constitute an official presidential campaign for the purpose of this market.

Market context
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