What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?
closes 2030
Conflux avatarRethink Priorities
CalebWithers avatarLong-term Future Fund
Conflux avatarShrimp Welfare Initiative
PeterWildeford avatarThe Humane League
Tetraspace avatarMachine Intelligence Research Institute
Conflux avatarFish Welfare Initiative
finnhambly avatarPatient Philanthropy Fund
CalebWithers avatarCenter for Reducing Suffering
CalebWithers avatarCenter on Long-Term Risk
Conflux avatarGiveWell

Relevant information prior to any voting on the poll: I currently think Rethink Priorities holds a plurality but not a majority of the probability distribution, followed by Shrimp Welfare [Edit: Project] , followed by Fish Welfare Initiative. With very high uncertainty I'd estimate that the union of these three has a probability of 50%.

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CalebWithers avatar
Caleb Withers

I added LTFF because I think it's reasonably common for people to trend towards valuing total and longtermist welfare, as they reflect over the years

AaronBergman avatar
Aaron Bergman

@CalebWithers Thanks, and at least in terms of explicit endorsement, I do. Pre-FTX, I was working under the assumption that LTFF was as un-funding constrained as any organization anywhere, but now I guess I have very little idea what the marginal funded project looks like

SpacedOutMatt avatar
SpacedOutMattbought Ṁ20 of Shrimp Welfare Initi...

I'm going hard on SWP. My understanding of Aaron is that he's pretty Tomasikpilled (https://www.aaronbergman.net/p/my-case-for-suffering-leaning-ethics, https://www.aaronbergman.net/p/on-suffering), so his value system is going to favor interventions that address immediate extreme suffering or S-risks over interventions that promote flourishing or address X-risks. Based on that, I think LTFF, MIRI, and GiveWell are all less likely to win.

Among the remaining options, I think it is relatively likely that Aaron will conclude SWP beats FWI (shrimp are small and SWP has already secured corporate commitments impacting >125 million shrimp/year https://www.shrimpwelfareproject.org/post/mou-with-mer-seafood, indicating lots of shrimp/$. FWI reaches about 1.3 fish/$ https://www.fishwelfareinitiative.org/impact, and I think Aaron is likely to defer to the RP moral weights which place shrimp and fish on similar footing https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Qk3hd6PrFManj8K6o/#Key_Takeaways). I am less sure about SWP beating THL, RP, CLR, and the Center for Reducing suffering.

AaronBergman avatar
Aaron Bergman

@SpacedOutMatt unironic 🫡 to the comment

I think CLR and CRS win in a nearby Everettian branch, but I don't think they have much of a theory of change (even a very indirect one) atm. This is based on digging in to their research when applying to a CLR program like 1.5 years ago (so not just a trivial first impression) but I stand to be corrected nonetheless

Conflux answered
Shrimp Welfare Initiative
SpacedOutMatt avatar

@Conflux Should be shrimp welfare project

PeterWildeford avatar
Peter Wildeford

BTW they call themselves "Shrimp Welfare Project", not "Shrimp Welfare Initiative". But I think a lot of people make this mistake.

Conflux avatar

@PeterWildeford Since the creator said it wrong in the description, I’m hoping they’ll resolve to this answer if they go for the Shrimp Welfare Project?

PeterWildeford avatar
Peter Wildeford

@Conflux I think so

Take note @AaronBergman

AaronBergman avatar
Aaron Bergman

@Conflux @PeterWildeford @SpacedOutMatt I hereby declare that for the purposes of this market, "Shrimp Welfare Initiative" will be considered synonymous to "Shrimp Welfare Project" until further notice

PeterWildeford avatar
Peter Wildefordbought Ṁ10 of Rethink Priorities

I put M10 on Rethink Priorities but otherwise I'll stay out of this since I'm clearly biased. :)

Conflux answered
Rethink Probabilities
Conflux avatar

@Conflux this is a really funny freudian slip

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