Relevant information prior to any voting on the poll: I currently think Rethink Priorities holds a plurality but not a majority of the probability distribution, followed by Shrimp Welfare [Edit: Project] , followed by Fish Welfare Initiative. With very high uncertainty I'd estimate that the union of these three has a probability of 50%.
I added LTFF because I think it's reasonably common for people to trend towards valuing total and longtermist welfare, as they reflect over the years
@CalebWithers Thanks, and at least in terms of explicit endorsement, I do. Pre-FTX, I was working under the assumption that LTFF was as un-funding constrained as any organization anywhere, but now I guess I have very little idea what the marginal funded project looks like
I'm going hard on SWP. My understanding of Aaron is that he's pretty Tomasikpilled (https://www.aaronbergman.net/p/my-case-for-suffering-leaning-ethics, https://www.aaronbergman.net/p/on-suffering), so his value system is going to favor interventions that address immediate extreme suffering or S-risks over interventions that promote flourishing or address X-risks. Based on that, I think LTFF, MIRI, and GiveWell are all less likely to win.
Among the remaining options, I think it is relatively likely that Aaron will conclude SWP beats FWI (shrimp are small and SWP has already secured corporate commitments impacting >125 million shrimp/year https://www.shrimpwelfareproject.org/post/mou-with-mer-seafood, indicating lots of shrimp/$. FWI reaches about 1.3 fish/$ https://www.fishwelfareinitiative.org/impact, and I think Aaron is likely to defer to the RP moral weights which place shrimp and fish on similar footing https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Qk3hd6PrFManj8K6o/#Key_Takeaways). I am less sure about SWP beating THL, RP, CLR, and the Center for Reducing suffering.
@SpacedOutMatt unironic to the comment
I think CLR and CRS win in a nearby Everettian branch, but I don't think they have much of a theory of change (even a very indirect one) atm. This is based on digging in to their research when applying to a CLR program like 1.5 years ago (so not just a trivial first impression) but I stand to be corrected nonetheless
BTW they call themselves "Shrimp Welfare Project", not "Shrimp Welfare Initiative". But I think a lot of people make this mistake.
@PeterWildeford Since the creator said it wrong in the description, I’m hoping they’ll resolve to this answer if they go for the Shrimp Welfare Project?
@Conflux I think so
Take note @AaronBergman
@Conflux @PeterWildeford @SpacedOutMatt I hereby declare that for the purposes of this market, "Shrimp Welfare Initiative" will be considered synonymous to "Shrimp Welfare Project" until further notice
I put M10 on Rethink Priorities but otherwise I'll stay out of this since I'm clearly biased. :)