Will the Vesuvius Challenge have a Grand Prize winner by the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 2


The first letters prize has been taken by two individuals over the last two weeks which has gained international attention. The grand prize is $700k and requires 4 separate passages at 140 characters each be legible.

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Not resolving this for a while unfortunately

Just DMd Nat Friedman and he said they got a dozen submissions last night and are reviewing them today.

predicted NO

@AaronBailey The market only resolves YES if the prize is given in 2023. This can resolve NO now since that didn't happen.

predicted NO

@AaronBailey I agree with Shump. There is no winner by the end of 2023

@Shump Clarified how this market will resolve with this scenario from your question 20 days ago

predicted NO

@AaronBailey How long will you wait to find out whether a prize was awarded in Dec?

edit: oh, as per the screenshot, sounds like you can resolve right away.

predicted NO

@AaronBailey Yes you clearly said it will resolve NO

predicted NO

@AaronBailey The organizers said they only started judging today. How could they have awarded the prize?

@Shump I stand corrected lol, apologies for that. Resolving no.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

Just clarifying, this should only resolve YES if the prize is granted before January, right? If it takes them longer than that to judge the solution, it won't count?

@Shump Ya this is a good q. I was planning on just resolving Jan 1. But maybe an announcement comes out later that says something was awarded in Dec.? Pretty unlikely imo.

Yes to your q though, if the judgement and award happens in Jan This will still resolve no.

Can't find the original source of the image, found it on Casey Handmer's blog — but this is about the state of the art right now.

@Mqrius I find the letter details interesting... The alpha doesn't look like the Greek alpha but more like the capital "A". Omicron looks like an upside down omega.

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