This market resolves YES for generally the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-vesuvius-challenge-recover

HOWEVER, the test is not for "at least one known lost work" but rather "at least 85% of one 1000-word-or-more passage".

This should diverge from @LarsDoucet 's market and result in YES when his would NO in at least the following conditions:

1. The challenge recovers everything, but the original work stored in the Vesuvius library was already universally incomplete (e.g., if it turns out scribes as of 79 AD already had lost access to part of a work)

2. The challenge recovers everything, but the original work stored in the Vesuvius library was locally incomplete (e.g., a particular chapter scroll of a larger work had been by bad luck been borrowed that day by a scribe for copying, and that scribe took the scroll with him when evacuating, and it was lost to history)

3. The challenge doesn't recover everything -- we just have less luck recovering consistent long blocks of text, versus fragmentary passages, than Lars hopes. (This is somewhat consistent with other text recovery efforts in the past).

4. Other corner cases I haven't thought of.

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

62% chance. This market resolves YES, if, as a direct result of the Vesuvius Challenge, and all downstream discovery/actitivities, a work is discovered and recovered that fulfills these criteria: 1) It is determined to be authentic 2) At least 90% of its textual content is confirmed legibly recovered 3) The work in question was known to us to have existed, but we don't currently have more than 10% of it An example of a known lost work is Claudius' history of the Etruscans: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrrhenika If not a single such work is recovered by 2030, this market resolves NO. EDIT: see comments. Has to be at least 1,000 words long in its complete form and see comments for complete works found within documents that are multi-work collections that are themselves incomplete