Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026?
13
Ṁ1kṀ4.1k
resolved Sep 27
Resolved
YES

Resolves according to Wikipedia article.

  • Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that:

    • A mention of the eruption in the volcano's own Wikipedia article is sufficient.

    • The Wikipedia page "List of volcanic eruptions in the 21st century" is also a key source, as such eruptions are typically listed there.

World
Climate
Science
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ841
2Ṁ183
3Ṁ95
4Ṁ41
5Ṁ24

People are also trading

Will there be more than 70 Active Volcanoes at the end of 2026?
61% chance
Will there be more than 30 New Volcano Eruptions in 2026?
72% chance
Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?
20% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 5 or greater before 2035?
48% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 6 or greater before 2050?
45% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 7 or greater before 2075?
15% chance
Will a supervolcano eruption happen by 2100?
8% chance
Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030?
10% chance
Will humans trigger a volcanic eruption by 2100?
39% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption on or around Santorini before or during 2050?
47% chance
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1 YES

I have some doubt that there will be a dedicated article, but presume mention of the eruption in the volcano's article suffices

@JussiVilleHeiskanen It would suffice but such eruptions are anyways listed in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanic_eruptions_in_the_21st_century.

@AnT Does the hayli gubbi one count

@spiderduckpig It does!

People are also trading

Will there be more than 70 Active Volcanoes at the end of 2026?
61% chance
Will there be more than 30 New Volcano Eruptions in 2026?
72% chance
Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?
20% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 5 or greater before 2035?
48% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 6 or greater before 2050?
45% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 7 or greater before 2075?
15% chance
Will a supervolcano eruption happen by 2100?
8% chance
Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030?
10% chance
Will humans trigger a volcanic eruption by 2100?
39% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption on or around Santorini before or during 2050?
47% chance