
Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026?
7
1kṀ18612026
33%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to Wikipedia article.
Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that:
A mention of the eruption in the volcano's own Wikipedia article is sufficient.
The Wikipedia page "List of volcanic eruptions in the 21st century" is also a key source, as such eruptions are typically listed there.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?
43% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 5 or greater before 2035?
51% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 6 or greater before 2050?
34% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 7 or greater before 2075?
15% chance
Will there be more than 70 Active Volcanoes at the end of 2025?
66% chance
Will there be more than 30 New Volcano Eruptions in 2025?
62% chance
Will there be more than 70 Active Volcanoes at the end of 2026?
61% chance
Will there be more than 30 New Volcano Eruptions in 2026?
72% chance
Will the Phlegraean Fields super volcano erupt by the end of 2025?
15% chance
Will a supervolcano eruption happen by 2100?
8% chance