Will Putin be overthrown during 2022?

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resolved Jan 1

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This market (Paired Market 1) resolves to "YES" if, two weeks after its close, Vladimir Putin has lost power in Russia. Seems to me a failed war effort and a catering economy could easily lead to either a popular uprising or an elite coup resulting in Putin's overthrow.

Politics

Ukraine-Russia war

Putin Life Insurance

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resolves to "YES" if [...] Vladimir Putin has lost power in Russia.

Does this include death from natural causes?

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arb

I created "Will Lukashenko lose power during 2022?" https://manifold.markets/M/will-lukashenko-lose-power-during-2 (also, I was clearly too optimistic here)

This is the inverse of https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-putin-be-the-leader-of-russia

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