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MANIFOLD
US announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before December 1st
2
Ṁ100Ṁ11
Nov 30
55%
chance

Based on official announcements of department of energy or other relevant authorities.

Context:

President Trump authorized the Department of Energy to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, beginning next week. This will take approximately 120 days to deliver based on planned discharge rates (March 11th, https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve)

A small-ish (400 000 barrels) emergency drawdown was announced on Oct 23rd: https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-authorizes-strategic-petroleum-reserve-exchange-support-fuel-supply

Only further announcements after question creation count. Temporary loans of Petroleum (apparently sometimes labelled as "exchanges") count as "drawdown" as long as they result in actual reduction of the amount of stored product.

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of Oct 16th is 282.7 million barrels, down from 415 million pre-war.

Some historical trends at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcsstus1&f=m, note that this is in thousands of barrels)

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