NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!

Waymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.

To define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition:

• No human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals

• No human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene

• Must be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count)

• Can't be in a fixed track, like the Las Vegas Loop

See also: Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2026 than Waymo?‌

I will delay resolution until both companies report results or until the result is extremely clear, or until it's January 2029, where I'll make an informed guess.

(This market is entirely inspired by James so thanks to him and others)