Trump promised that US will start escorting ships out of the Persian Gulf through the straight of Hormuz today, Iran responded they will attack any US ships that enter.

"large ship" refers to oil tankers, CNG carriers, container ships or similar (intention is to avoid situations where e.g. a small fishing boat passing through is claimed as successful escort).

In all cases, one case is sufficient to resolve YES.

Most of the categories are kind of fuzzy (escort, attempt), I think it is most likely to be quite clear, but when difficult, I'll take time for a consensus of media/analysts to form and possibly discuss here.

Note that an attack on a US ship was already claimed by Iran and damage denied by US https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260504-live-us-to-escort-ships-through-strait-of-hormuz-as-iran-warns-of-ceasefire-breach-trump

I will not bet on this market.

UPDATES:

• If important, I will use Iran local time for cutoff to resolve (UTC +3:30).

• Only manned surface ships count for all of the questions

• Combat damage only counts if it happens in the general area around Persian Gulf and the strait OR in clear connection to an escort mission