Trump promised that US will start escorting ships out of the Persian Gulf through the straight of Hormuz today in "Project Freedom". Iran responded they will attack any US ships that enter.
"large ship" refers to oil tankers, CNG carriers, container ships or similar (intention is to avoid situations where e.g. a small fishing boat passing through is claimed as successful escort).
For all questions, one case is sufficient to resolve YES.
Most of the categories are kind of fuzzy (escort, attempt), I think it is most likely to be quite clear, but when difficult, I'll take time for a consensus of media/analysts to form and possibly discuss here.
Note that an attack on a US ship was already claimed by Iran and damage denied by US https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260504-live-us-to-escort-ships-through-strait-of-hormuz-as-iran-warns-of-ceasefire-breach-trump
I will not bet on this market.
UPDATES:
If important, I will use Iran local time for cutoff to resolve (UTC +3:30).
Only manned surface ships count for all of the questions
Combat damage only counts if it happens in the general area around Persian Gulf and the strait OR in clear connection to an escort mission
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So it appears we are not getting any more reporting and clarity, we are left almost exclusively with claims of one side of the conflict, not confirmed by another. On the other hand, most of the relevant claims were also not seriously challenged. I will wait until May 13th the latest to resolve (and may resolve earlier if additional confirmation appears). I plan to resolve this way:
The US Navy claimed two of its ships crossed the strait and operated in the gulf. They also claim to have escorted two ships. Maersk confirmed it runs one of those ships and the ship was escorted, so unless further challenged, both
- US Navy manned vessel crosses the strait,
- Escort of a large ship is attempted, and
- Large ship successfully escorted through the strait
will resolve YES, despite some doubt remaining (e. g., it is not completely implausible to me that the US ships just got close to Hormuz but didn't cross it and Maersk agreed this is enough for them and is happy to call it "escort" to not anger the administration)
Iran claims to have shot missiles at US ships and US claims their ships were attacked by speedboats. This is not exactly an agreement, but without further info, it is enough to resolve "US navy ship attacked by Iran" to YES.
Iran claimed to have damaged US ship, US disagrees, Iran provides no corroborating evidence (AFAIK). It seems likely to me that if there was damage officials tried to hide it would have leaked (previous claimed hits at US assets were generally confirmed by the US / independent sources, though with some delay), so I would resolve NO.
Any ideas, comments, other sources?
@Willty2z there's a lot of claims but little actual evidence and details. Except for "combat damage" all options are likely YES, if the claims are not contradicted by later evidence. "Ship attacked" has the strongest support as both Iran and US claim this has been the case.
@AIBear I'll definitely wait for the fog of war to clear a little bit. There should be photos, transponder signals, eyewitness statements etc. to corroborate in the upcoming days - all US operations have been quite heavily documented in the press so far.
Lots of preliminary claims that would resolve a bunch of options, but I'Il wait a bit to make sure those are confirmed https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjwp432d0v5o