Will there be evidence of Tadej Pogacar using carbon monoxide for doping purposes by 2026?
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2026
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There has been speculation about possible doping among Tour de France teams by inhaling low doses of carbon monoxide to simulate the effects of altitude training. Teams use CO rebreathers for the legitimate purpose of blood tests, but systematic inhalation would be akin to doping, even though it is not yet actually banned. See https://www.reddit.com/r/peloton/comments/1e1m6ud/exclusive_tour_riders_are_inhaling_carbon/ and https://www.sportschau.de/radsport/tourdefrance/umstrittene-methode-inhalation-kohlenmonoxid,tourreporter-102.html

Among the riders suspected of doping in this way is Tadej Pogacar. This market resolves YES if there is tangible evidence by the end of 2026 that Pogacar specifically has been using this method at any point, including if he did so without realizing what's going on or that it's an illegitimate method (although that's hard to imagine).

"Tangible evidence" as per my judgment. Could be something like a credible whistleblower, incriminating text messages or of course more direct evidence. I'll use the general consensus in media reporting as a guide on whether possible evidence is solid enough to resolve YES. Might resolve to 50% if that reporting is split. I won't bet on this market.

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I think it's unlikely.