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MANIFOLD
Will Pogacar or Vingegaard test positive for a banned substance in 2026?
4
Ṁ200Ṁ318
Dec 31
3%
Only Pogacar
3%
Only Vingegaard
3%
Both
90%
Neither

Each option will resolve to YES or NO based on whether either Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard (or both or neither) is (or are) officially announced to have tested positive for a banned substance from a sample collected in the calendar year 2026.

  • "Positive test" is defined as an official announcement of an Adverse Analytical Finding (AAF), a provisional suspension, or a confirmed Anti-Doping Rule Violation (ADRV) by the Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI), the International Testing Agency (ITA), the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), or a relevant National Anti-Doping Organization (NADO). Banned substances are those defined by the WADA Prohibited List.

  • Timeframe: The physical sample must have been collected between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).

  • Cutoff for resolution: Because laboratory processing and the results management process can take time, the market will remain open to reflect findings until a final cutoff date of June 30, 2027. If no announcement has been made regarding a positive 2026 sample by this date, options will resolve based on the official findings reported up to that point.

Official sources of truth include announcements on the International Testing Agency (ITA) newsroom, the UCI Official Anti-Doping Sanctions page, or verified reports by major cycling outlets (e.g., Cyclingnews, Escape Collective).

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